The Miami Heat possess a slim 1% chance of securing the number one overall pick and a slightly better, though still low, 5% chance of landing in the top four. Historically, the Heat have never won the draft lottery, often moving backward in the selection order, which adds a layer of narrative to their current draft position.

Impact: Medium. This low probability fuels speculation and hope among fans, while the team's history of lottery misfortune adds a dramatic element to the upcoming draft.

In the source video, this keypoint occurs from 00:30:24 to 00:32:00.

Sources in support: Stugotz (Co-host), Dan Le Batard (Host)