Russia cannot afford to let Iran fall to the US or Israel, as it would expose Russia's southern flank to attack and consolidate US influence in Central Asia. Furthermore, Iran is a critical transit point for Russia's North-South corridor and China's Belt and Road Initiative; controlling Iran would effectively blockade both powers from accessing global markets.
Impact: High. The strategic importance of Iran to both Russia and China's trade routes and security makes Russian intervention almost inevitable, transforming the conflict into a direct confrontation between major global powers.
In the source video, this keypoint occurs from 01:05:02 to 01:06:23.
Sources in support: Professor Jiang (Geopolitical Analyst)

