Jiang argues that Trump's strategy of 'shock and awe,' successful in the flat topography of Iraq, is doomed in Iran's mountainous terrain. Iran's geography allows for guerrilla warfare and hiding of military assets, making a swift decapitation strike impossible. Instead, Iran can wage a war of attrition, inflicting pain and disrupting global energy supplies through control of the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the world to pressure the US to end the conflict.
Impact: High. This analysis suggests a fundamental miscalculation by the US regarding Iran's military capabilities and the strategic implications of its terrain, predicting a protracted and costly conflict.
In the source video, this keypoint occurs from 00:11:46 to 00:15:51.
Sources in support: Professor Jiang (Geopolitical Analyst)

