A Body Blow? The War on Iran and U.S. Military Readiness
The Need for a High-Low Munitions Mix
The U.S. military requires a spectrum of munitions, from high-end systems like Tomahawks and JASSMs to lower-cost, medium-range options. While innovation in cheaper, mass-producible systems like drones is crucial, especially for tasks like anti-ship warfare and attacking coastal bases, their effectiveness is limited by interception rates. Ship-based missile defenses are vital for extending regional air umbrellas and offer greater survivability than land-based systems, but the overall challenge lies in balancing cost, capability, and mass production across the entire spectrum of threats.
Naval Deployments and Strategic Trade-offs
The sustained naval presence required to blockade Iran strains the U.S. fleet, leading to extended deployments and wear on crews. This concentration of forces in the Middle East represents a strategic trade-off, diverting assets from other critical regions like the Western Pacific. While the Navy plans for rotations, the sheer scale of current commitments raises concerns about long-term readiness and the ability to respond to crises elsewhere.
Munitions Drain
The ongoing conflict with Iran is rapidly depleting U.S. munitions and missile defense interceptors, raising serious concerns about military readiness and the ability to respond to other potential threats, particularly from China. This expenditure is not easily or quickly replenished.
Deterrence and Vulnerability
The war's impact on U.S. readiness, particularly the expenditure of munitions, has potentially damaged deterrence against China, especially concerning Taiwan. While the U.S. military's skill is evident, its ability to connect this skill with successful political outcomes and maintain readiness across theaters is questioned.
