Building a US technology strategy for the Global South

1. The Importance of Local Needs and Non-Alignment

Timestamp: 00:12:44 to 00:13:24 - watch this moment on skim

Many countries in the Global South prefer a non-aligned approach rather than being forced to choose sides between the US and China. The US should offer value sets and opportunities that align with shared values like good governance and transparency, focusing on concrete actions like investment and education to help these nations prosper sustainably.

Significance (High): Recognizing the Global South's desire for non-alignment and focusing on shared values and tangible benefits is critical for the US to build trust and effective partnerships, moving beyond a purely competitive framework.

Sources in support: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka)

Neutral sources: Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

2. US Recommendations: Diaspora, Education, and Coordination

Timestamp: 00:18:48 to 00:20:02 - watch this moment on skim

The report recommends that the US leverage diaspora networks, invest in education and technological partnerships, improve situational awareness of US and PRC strategies, identify like-minded partners for scaled investments, and coordinate US government capabilities overseas. It also advises limiting coercive tools to avoid alienating partners.

Significance (High): These recommendations offer a multi-faceted approach for the US to enhance its technological engagement in the Global South, focusing on building relationships, fostering local capacity, and strategic coordination.

Sources in support: Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University)

Neutral sources: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

3. China's Tech Dominance in the Global South

Timestamp: 00:21:22 to 00:28:07 - watch this moment on skim

China is strategically prioritizing the expansion of its high-tech industries by engaging with markets in the Global South, leveraging integrated offerings like financing and equipment installation. This approach, combined with competitive pricing and a focus on consumer needs, has allowed China to gain a significant advantage over the United States in sectors such as telecommunications and affordable devices across Africa and parts of Southeast Asia.

Significance (High): China's aggressive market penetration through integrated tech solutions and competitive pricing is reshaping the technological landscape in the Global South, potentially sidelining US influence and creating long-term dependencies.

Sources in support: Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

Neutral sources: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University)

4. China's Financing and Infrastructure Lock-in

Timestamp: 00:24:48 to 00:26:48 - watch this moment on skim

China's aggressive pricing strategy, coupled with flexible financing and integrated ecosystems (like BYD electric vehicles and charging stations), creates a significant long-term advantage. This can lead to infrastructure lock-in, making it difficult for countries to switch providers later, thus outcompeting the US not just in the short run but also in the long run.

Significance (High): China's model of offering comprehensive, low-cost solutions risks creating technological dependencies in the Global South, posing a strategic challenge for US influence and market access.

Sources in support: Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

Neutral sources: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab)

5. The US Strategy: Beyond Price Competition

Timestamp: 00:28:07 to 00:30:58 - watch this moment on skim

The United States must counter China's technological influence in the Global South not by solely competing on price, but by offering alternatives that emphasize quality, training, and capacity building. Examples like the US TDA providing grants for training on undersea cable projects demonstrate how offering incentives and addressing national security concerns can sway decisions away from Chinese offerings, even when they are cheaper.

Significance (High): By focusing on quality, security, and knowledge transfer, the US can build more sustainable and trusted technological partnerships, offering a compelling alternative to China's price-driven approach.

Sources in support: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka)

Neutral sources: Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

6. Leveraging US Strengths: Quality and Innovation

Timestamp: 00:30:58 to 00:33:14 - watch this moment on skim

The US possesses substantial advantages in superior technologies, computing infrastructure, software, and private investment. However, fragmented financing and insufficient support for smaller projects, particularly in the $200,000 to $10 million range, hinder its ability to reach underserved markets in the Global South, an area where China is actively engaging.

Significance (Medium): The US's technological superiority risks being undermined if it cannot effectively channel its resources and financing to meet the diverse needs of Global South markets, especially for smaller-scale projects.

Sources in support: Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University)

Neutral sources: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

7. China's Messaging and 'Data Justice'

Timestamp: 00:32:40 to 00:33:54 - watch this moment on skim

China effectively communicates its technological offerings by emphasizing concepts like 'data justice,' 'choice,' and 'AI for all,' which resonate with Global South countries. This messaging contrasts with the US perception of seeking to protect its technological advantage, creating anxiety in regions concerned about falling behind.

Significance (Medium): China's strategic messaging, focusing on inclusivity and shared benefits, appears more appealing to many Global South nations than the US's perceived protectionist stance, influencing their technological alignment.

Sources in support: Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University)

Neutral sources: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

8. Tanton: US AI Advantage Needs Practical Application

Timestamp: 00:33:17 to 00:33:48 - watch this moment on skim

The US possesses a technical advantage in AI, creating an opportunity, but this advantage must be translated into practical offers through effective financing and implementation to reach customers in the Global South. Simply having the capability is insufficient; delivery and accessibility are key.

Significance (High): This highlights a critical gap between US technological prowess and its ability to translate that into tangible benefits for developing nations, suggesting a need for strategic focus on market penetration and financial models.

Sources in support: Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security)

Neutral sources: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

9. Protecting Innovation, Not Just Advantage

Timestamp: 00:34:33 to 00:35:18 - watch this moment on skim

The US approach to AI competition should focus on protecting innovation itself, rather than merely its perceived advantage. This involves establishing agreements on intellectual property rights while maintaining openness for data sharing, a complex balance in the future of AI development.

Significance (Medium): This frames the US-China tech competition not just as a zero-sum game, but as a battle for the principles guiding future technological advancement, emphasizing the importance of ethical frameworks alongside competitive strategy.

Sources in support: Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab)

Neutral sources: Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security), Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

10. Ambassador Chong: China's Data Justice Hypocrisy Exposed

Timestamp: 00:35:19 to 00:36:58 - watch this moment on skim

China's narrative as a standard-bearer for data justice and human rights in the Global South is hypocritical, evidenced by its alleged pressure on Zambia to cancel RightsCon due to Taiwanese participation. This reveals a disregard for open civil society engagement when it challenges Beijing's interests.

Significance (High): This directly challenges China's soft power projection in the digital realm, suggesting that its pursuit of influence is not rooted in genuine commitment to open governance or human rights, potentially eroding trust among Global South nations.

Sources in support: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka)

Neutral sources: Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security), Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

11. Sergio: US Coercive Measures Erode Trust

Timestamp: 00:37:33 to 00:38:37 - watch this moment on skim

The US administration's preference for coercive measures, such as visa restrictions or threats against countries engaging with China, is counterproductive. Such tactics undermine the trust necessary for genuine partnership and full-hearted engagement, ultimately hindering long-term collaboration.

Significance (High): This critique points to a fundamental flaw in US diplomatic strategy, suggesting that a reliance on pressure tactics, rather than collaborative incentives, is alienating potential allies and playing into China's hands by creating a perception of US heavy-handedness.

Sources in support: Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University)

Neutral sources: Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security), Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

12. Dr. Kenton: Global South Demands Choice, Not Hegemony

Timestamp: 00:41:18 to 00:43:06 - watch this moment on skim

Countries in the Global South are seeking genuine choice in technology partnerships, not merely an alternative to US or Chinese hegemony. Initiatives like Huawei's expanding AI platform and data services highlight a demand that US policies, such as PAC-SILC, which restrict participation, fail to address.

Significance (High): This underscores the strategic imperative for the US to offer more than just security assurances; it must provide competitive, locally relevant technological solutions and resources to meet the diverse needs and aspirations of Global South nations.

Sources in support: Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab)

Neutral sources: Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security), Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

13. Ambassador Chong: Fostering FDI in Sri Lanka

Timestamp: 00:49:10 to 00:50:35 - watch this moment on skim

Encouraging US tech firms to invest in countries like Sri Lanka requires the host nation to create an attractive environment through robust regulatory frameworks, anti-corruption measures, and infrastructure development, particularly in strategic sectors like maritime logistics.

Significance (High): This emphasizes the agency of developing nations in attracting foreign direct investment, shifting the focus from solely US initiatives to the crucial role of domestic policy and governance in facilitating economic partnerships.

Sources in support: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka)

Neutral sources: Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security), Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

14. Dr. Kenton: Visa Restrictions Risk US Innovation Edge

Timestamp: 00:54:41 to 00:55:40 - watch this moment on skim

Strict US visa restrictions for talented individuals from Global South countries pose a significant risk to the US innovation ecosystem, particularly in AI. This self-inflicted wound could cede the US's competitive advantage in talent to rivals like China, which actively courts international researchers.

Significance (High): This argument directly links immigration policy to national competitiveness, warning that restrictive measures could undermine the very foundation of US technological leadership by alienating the global talent pool it relies upon.

Sources in support: Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab)

Neutral sources: Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security), Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

15. Amita: Leverage Diaspora and Youth Programs

Timestamp: 00:56:47 to 00:57:42 - watch this moment on skim

The US should invest more in existing programs like the Young South Asia Leaders initiative, which fosters practical solutions among young people from diverse backgrounds. These programs, along with leveraging diaspora networks, are crucial strengths that China lacks and should be prioritized for global engagement.

Significance (High): This advocates for a strategic focus on people-to-people diplomacy and youth empowerment as cost-effective tools for building long-term relationships and fostering innovation, capitalizing on a unique US advantage.

Sources in support: Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

Neutral sources: Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security), Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab)

16. Sergio: US Must Match Chinese Investment in Peru

Timestamp: 00:58:21 to 01:00:07 - watch this moment on skim

To compete with China's strategic investments like the Chiankai port in Peru, the US must offer realistic alternatives that match the scale and ambition of Chinese projects. This requires enticing US companies to take calculated risks and leveraging export credit agencies to provide competitive incentives.

Significance (High): This highlights the economic dimension of geopolitical competition, arguing that the US cannot solely rely on diplomatic rhetoric or coercive measures but must actively compete on investment and project financing to secure partnerships in critical regions.

Sources in support: Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University)

Neutral sources: Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security), Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Kenton Tibu (Senior Resident China Fellow at the Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab), Sergio Guzman (Co-founder and Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, Fellow of the Council's Global China Hub)

17. Kenton: DFC Reforms for Connectivity Finance

Timestamp: 01:02:41 to 01:04:18 - watch this moment on skim

Recent reforms to the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), including increased investment exposure and the establishment of a revolving equity fund, provide the US with greater capacity and flexibility to finance credible technology offers like fiber networks and data centers. These changes empower specialized intermediaries to deploy capital effectively in developing markets.

Significance (High): These reforms are presented as a critical mechanism for the US to actively compete by providing substantial, well-managed financial backing for essential digital infrastructure in the Global South.

Sources in support: Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security)

Neutral sources: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka)

18. Sergio: US Tech Advantage Over China

Timestamp: 01:06:22 to 01:06:53 - watch this moment on skim

The United States possesses a significant reputational advantage over China in technology, which many countries in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia would prefer to leverage. The key is to make it easy for these countries to work with the US, thereby managing and not squandering this advantage.

Significance (High): This point frames the core strategic challenge: leveraging existing trust and preference to build technological partnerships. It suggests a proactive, facilitative approach is more effective than coercion.

Sources in support: Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University), Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security)

19. Ambassador Chung: Techno-Democracies and Partnerships

Timestamp: 01:08:48 to 01:09:13 - watch this moment on skim

The future lies in 'techno-democracies' effectively utilizing their innovations and assets by integrating private sector ingenuity, government coordination, diaspora engagement, and academic collaboration. By working with allies and partners, democratic nations possess a greater overall advantage than authoritarian regimes.

Significance (High): This perspective emphasizes a holistic, collaborative approach, positioning democratic technological cooperation as a superior model for global development and competition.

Sources in support: Andrew Peak (Director of the Adrien Arch National Security Resilience Initiative and the Geost Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council Skowcroft Center for Strategy and Security), Julie Chung (Atlantic Council Distinguished Fellow, Vice President for Strategy and Global Affairs at ISC2, Senior Advisor at the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue University, former US Ambassador to Sri Lanka), Conrad Tucker (Non-resident Senior Fellow for Science and Policy at the Geost Strategy Initiative, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University)

US Coercive Measures vs. Partnership (High severity)

Type: Political Activist

The US employs coercive measures (e.g., visa restrictions, threats) in its engagement with Global South countries, which undermines trust and partnership, contrasting with China's approach which, while potentially manipulative, offers concrete deliverables.

Significance: This approach risks alienating potential partners and pushing them towards China, as countries seek reliable allies rather than being dictated to. It questions the US's ability to build sustainable, trust-based relationships.

China's 'Data Justice' Hypocrisy (High severity)

Type: Reputational

China promotes itself as a champion of data justice and human rights for the Global South, yet allegedly pressured Zambia to cancel RightsCon due to Taiwanese participation, revealing a contradiction between its messaging and actions.

Significance: This hypocrisy challenges China's narrative and raises questions about its commitment to genuine digital rights and open participation, potentially weakening its influence among nations valuing these principles.