Кандидаты в жертвы. Статус S09E40

1. Shulman: The Unsettling Pattern of General's Demise

Timestamp: 00:03:30 to 00:09:54 - watch this moment on skim

The recent explosion of a car in Balashikha, killing a high-ranking military official, is part of a disturbing trend of assassinations targeting generals within Russia's rear, not on the front lines. This pattern includes previous incidents involving Lieutenant Generals Kirillov, Moskalik, and Sarvarov, and an attempted assassination on Lieutenant General Alekseev, raising serious questions about internal security and the vulnerability of top military brass.

Significance (High): This highlights a critical security lapse, suggesting internal threats or compromised security protocols are affecting the highest echelons of the Russian military, potentially impacting morale and operational stability.

Sources in support: Ekaterina Shulman (Host)

Neutral sources: Alexander Maximtsev (General-Colonel, former commander of Russian Aerospace Forces group in Syria), Damir Davydov (Major General, Head of Main Rocket and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense), Kirillov (Lieutenant General), Yaroslav Moskalik (Lieutenant General, Deputy Head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff), Fanil Sarvarov (Lieutenant General, Head of the Operational Training Directorate of the Armed Forces), Vladimir Alekseev (Lieutenant General, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU))

2. Shulman: FSB's Bureaucratic Dance Amidst Security Failures

Timestamp: 00:08:44 to 00:12:20 - watch this moment on skim

Following the assassination of General Sarvarov, a meeting with the President revealed inter-agency blame-shifting between the FSB, Rosgvardia, and the General Staff regarding security failures. The FSB claimed it was busy with more important matters, Rosgvardia focused on protesters, and the General Staff was the primary victim. This bureaucratic infighting led to the FSB being tasked with adding ten more generals to the protected list, illustrating a pattern where the FSB avoids responsibility for security lapses.

Significance (High): This reveals a dysfunctional security apparatus where blame is deflected, and the FSB, despite its failures, appears to be expanding its influence and resources rather than facing accountability, potentially at the expense of genuine security.

Sources in support: Ekaterina Shulman (Host)

Neutral sources: Federal Security Service (FSB) (Intelligence Agency), Rosgvardia (National Guard of Russia), General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (Military Command), Fanil Sarvarov (Lieutenant General, Head of the Operational Training Directorate of the Armed Forces)

3. Shulman: The Curious Case of FSB Officer Sosonkin

Timestamp: 00:12:23 to 00:15:00 - watch this moment on skim

The arrest of FSB officer Evgeny Sosonkin, who allegedly oversaw FSB operations in Libya and was linked to Wagner's activities in Africa, points to internal conflicts or purges within the intelligence services. His connection to the FSB's Fifth Service, responsible for international relations and which provided flawed intelligence on Ukraine, further highlights potential issues within the agency's leadership and operations.

Significance (High): The arrest of a key officer involved in sensitive foreign operations suggests internal power struggles or accountability measures are at play within the FSB, potentially impacting Russia's clandestine activities abroad.

Sources in support: Ekaterina Shulman (Host)

Neutral sources: Evgeny Sosonkin (FSB Officer), Federal Security Service (FSB) (Intelligence Agency), Wagner Group (Private Military Company), Oleg Deripaska (Businessman), CNN (Media Outlet), Financial Times (Media Outlet), Vazhnye Istorii (Media Outlet), Insider (Media Outlet)

4. Shulman: Central Bank's Leadership Conundrum

Timestamp: 00:17:11 to 00:22:15 - watch this moment on skim

The Central Bank of Russia is facing a series of unusual events, including Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina's absence from the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, the death of her advisor Alexey Mozhin, and her own reported illness. These occurrences, coupled with an upcoming leadership transition as Nabiullina's term ends in 2027, create uncertainty around the bank's future direction and stability.

Significance (Medium): The confluence of leadership absences and an impending term limit for the Central Bank chair creates a period of potential instability and strategic uncertainty for Russia's financial sector.

Sources in support: Ekaterina Shulman (Host)

Neutral sources: Elvira Nabiullina (Chairwoman of the Central Bank of Russia), Alexey Mozhin (Advisor to the Chairwoman of the Central Bank of Russia), Ksenia Yudaeva (Representative of Russia to the IMF, former Deputy Chairwoman of the Central Bank), Mikhail Mamuta (Deputy Chairwoman of the Central Bank of Russia), Roscongress (Organization)

5. Shulman: Budgetary Power Shift to the Finance Ministry

Timestamp: 00:22:54 to 00:24:49 - watch this moment on skim

Legislative changes are granting the Russian government, specifically the Ministry of Finance, increased power to alter the federal budget without direct approval from the State Duma. This bypasses the traditional legislative process for budget amendments, suggesting a move towards greater executive control over fiscal policy and potentially reducing parliamentary oversight.

Significance (Medium): This shift centralizes fiscal power, potentially streamlining budget adjustments but also diminishing the role of the legislature and public scrutiny in financial decision-making.

Sources in support: Ekaterina Shulman (Host)

Neutral sources: State Duma (Legislature)

6. Siluanov's Budget Concerns and Parliamentary Oversight

Timestamp: 00:24:52 to 00:27:41 - watch this moment on skim

Minister Siluanov indicated that the government is facing budget shortfalls and is considering ways to increase revenue or cut expenses. He stated that while no formal budget amendments are planned for the spring session, parliamentary commissions are involved in discussions about reallocating funds and prioritizing expenditures. However, the commentary argues that this is not true parliamentary control, as the parliament lacks the power to reject government proposals.

Significance (High): This highlights potential fiscal challenges and the government's efforts to manage them, while also questioning the effectiveness of parliamentary checks and balances in Russia's political system.

Sources in support: Ekaterina Shulman (Host)

Sources against: General Prosecutor's Office

7. The 'Anti-Fraud' Package and Increased State Control

Timestamp: 00:29:33 to 00:32:19 - watch this moment on skim

A new package of anti-fraud measures has been passed, which includes restrictions on SIM card purchases, expanded powers for banks to block accounts, and potential limitations on international calls. The commentary argues that these measures, while presented as security enhancements, significantly increase state surveillance and control over citizens' financial and communication activities, effectively making it harder to operate outside of state-sanctioned channels.

Significance (High): These measures represent a significant expansion of state control over personal data and financial transactions, potentially chilling legitimate activities and increasing the risk of arbitrary restrictions on citizens.

Sources against: General Prosecutor's Office

8. New Rules for Website Authorization and Data Control

Timestamp: 00:32:36 to 00:33:47 - watch this moment on skim

Websites will now be fined if they allow authorization through foreign services like Gmail or Apple ID, forcing them to use only Russian state services like Gosuslugi or the unified biometric system. This move is presented as a measure to enhance security and data control, but it effectively isolates Russian internet users from global platforms and further centralizes personal data within state-controlled systems.

Significance (High): This policy significantly restricts user choice in online authentication and pushes towards a more closed, state-controlled digital ecosystem, raising concerns about data privacy and access to international services.

Sources against: General Prosecutor's Office

9. Asset Confiscation from Former Judge Khakhaleva

Timestamp: 00:36:01 to 00:38:23 - watch this moment on skim

A court has ordered the confiscation of assets from former judge Yelena Khakhaleva and her associates, following allegations of ties to organized crime and illicit enrichment. The General Prosecutor's Office presented evidence linking the family's wealth to criminal elements. The scope of confiscation has expanded to include 'trusted persons' who allegedly held assets on behalf of Khakhaleva, indicating a broadening legal practice in asset seizure.

Significance (High): This case exemplifies the state's increasing assertiveness in combating corruption through asset confiscation, extending its reach to individuals associated with alleged wrongdoers and signaling a more aggressive approach to illicit enrichment.

Sources in support: Charles Tilly (Sociologist and Political Scientist)

Neutral sources: Kommersant

10. Tilly's Theory: War Creates the State

Timestamp: 00:44:09 to 00:46:09 - watch this moment on skim

Charles Tilly's theory posits that states are fundamentally created and sustained through organized violence and warfare. He argues that state-building is essentially an extension of organized crime, where leaders control territory, extract resources for war, and defend against rivals. This perspective views the state's primary function as preparation for and engagement in conflict, challenging more benign theories of state origin like the social contract.

Significance (High): Tilly's provocative theory reframes the state not as a benevolent protector but as a powerful entity born from and perpetuating violence, offering a starkly realistic, albeit cynical, view of political power.

Sources in support: Anton Siluanov (Minister of Finance)

11. The State as an 'Extraction Machine'

Timestamp: 00:47:12 to 00:48:02 - watch this moment on skim

Extending Tilly's theory, the state is characterized by its continuous need to extract resources from its population to fund its military and maintain control. This extraction process is central to state survival and expansion, viewing government functions primarily through the lens of resource acquisition and management for coercive purposes.

Significance (Medium): This perspective demystifies state functions, portraying them as fundamentally driven by the need to secure resources for power maintenance and conflict, rather than public service.

Sources in support: Anton Siluanov (Minister of Finance)

12. Shulman: The State as a Racketeer

Timestamp: 00:47:31 to 00:51:04 - watch this moment on skim

Charles Tilly's theory posits that states are essentially 'racketeers' who extract resources (taxes, conscripts) from citizens by threatening to inflict harm (burning down their homes) or by offering protection against external threats. This coercive apparatus requires a bureaucratic structure, including tax collectors, courts, and prisons, to function. The development of mass education was intertwined with the creation of mass armies, as a more educated populace could become more effective soldiers. This model of extraction, while initially direct, evolved to include propaganda to legitimize the state's actions and ensure compliance, framing citizens as patriots who should prefer being exploited by their own state rather than by foreign enemies. The state's continuous need for resources can lead to expansion, and when direct extraction becomes difficult, elites may turn on their own to seize wealth, a process akin to 'de-kulakization.' This fundamental dynamic shapes the relationship between the state and its citizens, often through a lens of coercion and control.

Significance (High): This framing of the state as a coercive entity fundamentally challenges traditional notions of governance, suggesting that state power is rooted in organized violence and extraction rather than social contract. It provides a critical lens through which to analyze historical and contemporary state behavior, highlighting the inherent tension between state interests and citizen welfare.

Sources in support: Ekaterina Shulman (Host)

13. Shulman on Repertoires of Collective Action

Timestamp: 00:51:11 to 00:52:21 - watch this moment on skim

When direct state extraction becomes unsustainable, or citizens resist, states must employ different strategies. Tilly's concept of 'repertoires of collective action' describes the evolving methods citizens use to resist state power. Historically, this included actions like supporting pretenders, burning estates, or organizing strikes. In the 21st century, these repertoires have shifted to online petitions and digital activism. The speaker notes that while citizens might flee the 'racketeer,' they often end up under the control of another. The effectiveness of modern protest methods, like online petitions, compared to historical forms like arson, is questioned, suggesting that the 'repertoire' itself may be changing, but not necessarily becoming more potent in all contexts. This evolution reflects a society's changing capacity and methods for expressing dissent and influencing state power.

Significance (Medium): This point highlights the dynamic nature of citizen-state relations, illustrating how resistance tactics adapt to technological and social changes. It prompts reflection on whether modern, often digital, forms of protest are as impactful as older, more direct methods, questioning the true power of contemporary activism.

Sources in support: Ekaterina Shulman (Host)

14. Shulman: The Dissonance of Mobilization

Timestamp: 00:52:26 to 00:54:53 - watch this moment on skim

The discussion, prompted by a question about the perception of mobilized soldiers, reveals a significant dissonance between official propaganda and public sentiment in Russia. Instead of being viewed as heroes defending the nation, soldiers are increasingly seen as mercenaries undertaking a dangerous, but well-paid, job. Families' primary concern is financial compensation rather than patriotic duty. This pragmatic, transactional view allows society to distance itself from the war, framing it as a state endeavor for which individuals are compensated, rather than a collective national cause. This detachment, the speaker suggests, is a coping mechanism for a society uncomfortable with the war's reality, allowing them to avoid responsibility and empathy. The emphasis on financial compensation over heroism is seen as a way to manage the psychological burden of the conflict, and this sentiment is likely to persist until the state's narrative shifts or the war concludes.

Significance (High): This analysis exposes a critical disconnect between state narratives and public perception, revealing a society that has largely disengaged from the war's ideological underpinnings. It suggests that the war is perceived not as a patriotic duty but as a high-risk employment opportunity, with profound implications for social cohesion and national identity.

Sources in support: Ekaterina Shulman (Host)

15. Shulman on Constitutional Interpretation

Timestamp: 00:56:20 to 00:58:28 - watch this moment on skim

The 2008-2012 'rock-and-roll' (Medvedev-Putin) рокировка, where formal constitutional procedures were followed but the spirit of power alternation was violated, exemplifies how the 'letter of the law' can be manipulated to subvert its 'political meaning.' Laws, being composed of words, are inherently subject to interpretation. While striving for unambiguous legal formulations, like the stark warning 'Do not enter, it will kill you,' is ideal, no law can self-enforce. In a healthy political system, continuous interpretation and debate by society's institutions—courts, parliament, press, and public discourse—are crucial for upholding the law's intent. The public's outrage in 2011-2012 stemmed from feeling deceived by legalistic maneuvers that circumvented the principle of changing power. The erosion of checks and balances meant that even public protest could not alter this outcome, marking a 'sad fork' in Russian history.

Significance (High): This point critically examines the fragility of constitutionalism when formal adherence to law masks a subversion of its underlying principles. It underscores the vital role of public discourse and institutional integrity in preventing legalistic trickery from undermining democratic norms and the peaceful transfer of power.

Sources in support: Ekaterina Shulman (Host)

16. Shulman: Universal Suffrage and Expanding Rights

Timestamp: 00:58:48 to 01:00:12 - watch this moment on skim

Addressing a question about restricting voting rights, the speaker firmly advocates for universal suffrage, asserting that all citizens, regardless of gender or personal circumstances, should have the right to vote. Delegating a deputy to parliament means that deputy votes on all issues. The idea of restricting voting based on reproductive health or military service is dismissed as a dangerous path toward limiting rights. True happiness and societal progress, she argues, lie not in restrictions but in the expansion of rights. To prevent a 'monopoly' in parliament, such as a group of older men legislating on women's bodies, there must be diverse parties, including those that champion women's interests and gain votes from female electorates. A hypothetical 'party of women' could garner significant support, influencing the political landscape in a healthy electoral process where courts and other institutions also act as checks on power.

Significance (High): This impassioned defense of universal suffrage and the expansion of rights serves as a powerful counter-argument to any form of disenfranchisement. It champions inclusivity and diversity in political representation as essential safeguards against the tyranny of the majority and the imposition of narrow, potentially oppressive, legislative agendas.

Sources in support: Ekaterina Shulman (Host)

FSB's Role in Security Failures (High severity)

Type: Professional

The analysis suggests a pattern of security failures and assassinations of high-ranking military officials, yet the FSB, despite having counter-intelligence and anti-sabotage units, is consistently portrayed as not being held responsible. This raises questions about the FSB's effectiveness and accountability, potentially indicating a conflict between its mandate and its actual performance or its protected status within the government.

Significance: This persistent lack of accountability for the FSB in the face of repeated security breaches and high-profile deaths could indicate deep-seated systemic issues within Russia's security apparatus, potentially compromising national security and fostering an environment where internal conflicts are not effectively managed.

Central Bank Policy Criticisms (Medium severity)

Type: Commercial

The Central Bank's monetary policy is criticized by entities like Roscongress and businessmen like Oleg Deripaska for allegedly stifling economic growth. This creates a conflict between the Central Bank's mandate for financial stability and the perceived interests of certain economic actors and state-affiliated organizations seeking different growth strategies.

Significance: The ongoing tension between the Central Bank's conservative policies and the demands for more aggressive economic stimulus highlights a fundamental debate about Russia's economic future, with potential implications for investment, inflation, and overall economic performance.

Government's Bypass of Parliamentary Budget Control (High severity)

Type: Political Activist

The government is proposing to allow internal state borrowing above the legal limit without submitting new draft laws to the State Duma, effectively sidestepping parliamentary oversight.

Significance: This move raises serious questions about transparency and accountability in fiscal management. By reducing parliamentary checks, the government risks making critical financial decisions with less public scrutiny, potentially leading to unchecked spending or debt accumulation.

Anti-Fraud Measures and State Control (Medium severity)

Type: Commercial

New anti-fraud legislation introduces measures like limiting SIM card purchases, expanding powers for banks to block accounts, and restricting international calls, ostensibly for security but potentially increasing state surveillance and control over citizens' financial and communication activities.

Significance: While aimed at combating fraud, these measures could significantly curtail personal freedoms and increase the state's ability to monitor and control citizens' digital and financial lives, blurring the lines between security and authoritarianism.

Confiscation of Assets from Former Judge Yelena Khakhaleva (High severity)

Type: Reputational

A court has ordered the confiscation of assets from former judge Yelena Khakhaleva and her associates, based on allegations of ties to organized crime and illicit enrichment.

Significance: This case highlights the extensive reach of corruption and the state's increasing willingness to seize assets, even from those previously considered untouchable. The expansion of confiscation to 'trusted persons' suggests a broader net is being cast, raising questions about due process and the definition of complicity.