Кандидаты в жертвы. Статус S09E40
Shulman: The Curious Case of FSB Officer Sosonkin
The arrest of FSB officer Evgeny Sosonkin, who allegedly oversaw FSB operations in Libya and was linked to Wagner's activities in Africa, points to internal conflicts or purges within the intelligence services. His connection to the FSB's Fifth Service, responsible for international relations and which provided flawed intelligence on Ukraine, further highlights potential issues within the agency's leadership and operations.
Shulman: Central Bank's Leadership Conundrum
The Central Bank of Russia is facing a series of unusual events, including Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina's absence from the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, the death of her advisor Alexey Mozhin, and her own reported illness. These occurrences, coupled with an upcoming leadership transition as Nabiullina's term ends in 2027, create uncertainty around the bank's future direction and stability.
Shulman: Budgetary Power Shift to the Finance Ministry
Legislative changes are granting the Russian government, specifically the Ministry of Finance, increased power to alter the federal budget without direct approval from the State Duma. This bypasses the traditional legislative process for budget amendments, suggesting a move towards greater executive control over fiscal policy and potentially reducing parliamentary oversight.
The 'Anti-Fraud' Package and Increased State Control
A new package of anti-fraud measures has been passed, which includes restrictions on SIM card purchases, expanded powers for banks to block accounts, and potential limitations on international calls. The commentary argues that these measures, while presented as security enhancements, significantly increase state surveillance and control over citizens' financial and communication activities, effectively making it harder to operate outside of state-sanctioned channels.
New Rules for Website Authorization and Data Control
Websites will now be fined if they allow authorization through foreign services like Gmail or Apple ID, forcing them to use only Russian state services like Gosuslugi or the unified biometric system. This move is presented as a measure to enhance security and data control, but it effectively isolates Russian internet users from global platforms and further centralizes personal data within state-controlled systems.
Asset Confiscation from Former Judge Khakhaleva
A court has ordered the confiscation of assets from former judge Yelena Khakhaleva and her associates, following allegations of ties to organized crime and illicit enrichment. The General Prosecutor's Office presented evidence linking the family's wealth to criminal elements. The scope of confiscation has expanded to include 'trusted persons' who allegedly held assets on behalf of Khakhaleva, indicating a broadening legal practice in asset seizure.
Tilly's Theory: War Creates the State
Charles Tilly's theory posits that states are fundamentally created and sustained through organized violence and warfare. He argues that state-building is essentially an extension of organized crime, where leaders control territory, extract resources for war, and defend against rivals. This perspective views the state's primary function as preparation for and engagement in conflict, challenging more benign theories of state origin like the social contract.
The State as an 'Extraction Machine'
Extending Tilly's theory, the state is characterized by its continuous need to extract resources from its population to fund its military and maintain control. This extraction process is central to state survival and expansion, viewing government functions primarily through the lens of resource acquisition and management for coercive purposes.
Shulman on Repertoires of Collective Action
When direct state extraction becomes unsustainable, or citizens resist, states must employ different strategies. Tilly's concept of 'repertoires of collective action' describes the evolving methods citizens use to resist state power. Historically, this included actions like supporting pretenders, burning estates, or organizing strikes. In the 21st century, these repertoires have shifted to online petitions and digital activism. The speaker notes that while citizens might flee the 'racketeer,' they often end up under the control of another. The effectiveness of modern protest methods, like online petitions, compared to historical forms like arson, is questioned, suggesting that the 'repertoire' itself may be changing, but not necessarily becoming more potent in all contexts. This evolution reflects a society's changing capacity and methods for expressing dissent and influencing state power.
Shulman on Constitutional Interpretation
The 2008-2012 'rock-and-roll' (Medvedev-Putin) рокировка, where formal constitutional procedures were followed but the spirit of power alternation was violated, exemplifies how the 'letter of the law' can be manipulated to subvert its 'political meaning.' Laws, being composed of words, are inherently subject to interpretation. While striving for unambiguous legal formulations, like the stark warning 'Do not enter, it will kill you,' is ideal, no law can self-enforce. In a healthy political system, continuous interpretation and debate by society's institutions—courts, parliament, press, and public discourse—are crucial for upholding the law's intent. The public's outrage in 2011-2012 stemmed from feeling deceived by legalistic maneuvers that circumvented the principle of changing power. The erosion of checks and balances meant that even public protest could not alter this outcome, marking a 'sad fork' in Russian history.
Shulman: Universal Suffrage and Expanding Rights
Addressing a question about restricting voting rights, the speaker firmly advocates for universal suffrage, asserting that all citizens, regardless of gender or personal circumstances, should have the right to vote. Delegating a deputy to parliament means that deputy votes on all issues. The idea of restricting voting based on reproductive health or military service is dismissed as a dangerous path toward limiting rights. True happiness and societal progress, she argues, lie not in restrictions but in the expansion of rights. To prevent a 'monopoly' in parliament, such as a group of older men legislating on women's bodies, there must be diverse parties, including those that champion women's interests and gain votes from female electorates. A hypothetical 'party of women' could garner significant support, influencing the political landscape in a healthy electoral process where courts and other institutions also act as checks on power.
