skim: brookingsinstitution: YouTube Channel Summaries

Beyond the school walls: How community partnerships strengthen learning ecosystems

Education1 of 9

Community Partnerships Prevent Dropout

Community partnerships serve as critical safeguards that keep vulnerable students from being forced out of the school system during crises. Drawing on fieldwork in Tanzania and Pennsylvania, systemic coordination addresses root causes of absenteeism like caregiving rather than applying punitive attendance policies. This reframing preserves student continuity in education through complex life disruptions.

Three Intermediary Models for Learning Hubs

Community engagement functions through three distinct operational archetypes depending on who serves as the central intermediary. These structures range from single school hubs and multi-school district zones to regional community organizations convening partners externally. Establishing clear intermediaries prevents collaboration from dissolving into uncoordinated efforts.

Coordinated Transition Smoothing in Maine

First 10 hubs create practical local infrastructure that aligns early childhood providers and elementary classrooms before school begins. In Sanford, Maine, this cross-sector alignment facilitated bus trial rides, joint educator meetings, and family visits to ease kindergarten entry. A smooth start establishes foundational security that directly improves academic gains by the end of the first grade year.

Moving Past Transactional School Partnerships

Traditional schooling treats community partners and families as peripheral transactional add-ons rather than core educational co-creators. Community school strategy redefines learning by bringing external partners into central governance, instructional planning, and shared decision-making. Replacing random acts of programming with systemic integration transforms how public schooling operates.

Shared Mathematics Games in Pennsylvania

Research confirms that child outcomes rely heavily on community social capital and developmental continuity across settings. In York, Pennsylvania, a citywide early math campaign united early childhood centers, public schools, and libraries around shared physical games. Reinforcing identical numeracy concepts across classrooms, homes, and community sites created a unified learning environment.

The Neurobiology of Safe Learning Environments

Trauma-informed educational practices frequently focus too narrowly on stress hormone diagnostic scores while missing the essential role of emotional safety in learning. Neuroplasticity and deep cognitive processing require relational trust, curiosity, and oxytocin generated within supportive social environments. Without intentional adult coordination and genuine interpersonal warmth, academic content fails to engage the brain effectively.

Decentralized Trust Enables Experimentation

Cultivating trust requires years of consistent follow-through rather than one-off events or brief grant cycles. An effective ecosystem steward does not place itself at the center of every transaction, but instead connects diverse actors like roboticists and classroom teachers directly. When relational trust is established, educators gain the psychological safety required to risk abandoning outdated teaching habits.

Entering Communities as Humble Guests

External educational organizations must recognize that local communities possess deep pre-existing histories and are not waiting passively to be rescued by outside experts. Interventions succeed only by acknowledging existing community dynamics and proposing feasible, gratifying initial goals. Meeting people at their genuine developmental starting point prevents frustration and cultivates durable partnership ethics.

Scaling Demands Adapting to Local Format

Expanding educational programs reveals that scaling fundamentally alters the nature of the intervention itself. In rural Uruguay, students preferred tangible paper books over cheaper digital readers by a four-to-one ratio, demonstrating that format dictates the felt experience. Sustainable expansion requires grounding initiatives in regional cultural legacies while ensuring broad communal ownership across multiple organizations.

Beyond the school walls: How community partnerships strengthen learning ecosystems

BIBrookings Institution1h 3m

BI

Can ‘working-class liberalism’ heal liberal democracy?

Politics1 of 10

Post-Industrial Society Disrupted Shared Prosperity

The professor contends that modern liberal democracy is faltering because its core economic pledge of shared prosperity was broken by post-industrial restructuring. Unlike industrial growth where corporate investment fueled worker wages via unions, digital technology and globalization enabled firms to automate or offshore tasks without lifting wages. This economic disruption severed the historic link between technological progress and broad working-class gain.

Educational Segregation Transformed the Center-Left

Center-left political parties abandoned their historic working-class bases to cater to educated urban professionals, according to the professor. He observes that while working-class voters historically formed the backbone of social democratic and progressive parties, college graduates have increasingly dominated party leadership, activist networks, and policy agendas since the 1970s.

Top-Down Cultural Mandates Provoked Class Backlash

Educational sorting produced sharp cultural polarization that eroded social empathy between classes. The professor argues that professional elites used institutional influence to push rapid cultural changes top-down, which working-class communities experienced as exclusionary and disrespectful. This lack of organic cultural dialogue fueled deep resentment and laid the groundwork for populist political rebellion.

Economic Fixes Cannot Overcome Cultural Alienation

Addressing working-class grievances strictly through income redistribution or welfare subsidies fails to resolve the crisis of democracy. Acemoglu explains that voters require genuine dignity and social respect rather than condescending material handouts paired with cultural stigmatization. He maintains that lasting democratic legitimacy demands cultural respect alongside economic opportunity.

German Industrial Co-Determination Preserved Labor Value

Contrasting German and American approaches to industrial automation, Acemoglu highlights that German manufacturers adopted robotics while maintaining employment by retraining workers into technical roles. Strong works councils and industry-specific skills encouraged German firms to make technology human-complementary rather than purely replacing labor. This historical example illustrates that technology deployment is a conscious institutional choice rather than an inevitable outcome.

Artificial Intelligence Threatens Wealth Concentration

Acemoglu challenges Silicon Valley claims of effortless abundance, arguing that orienting artificial intelligence around full human replacement will primarily enrich elite owners. He warns that rapid automation without pro-worker task creation will eliminate dignified jobs and dismantle shared prosperity. Consequently, society must redirect artificial intelligence to augment human expertise rather than replace human workers.

Digital Platforms Displaced Authentic Local Communities

Physical community decline has impaired citizen self-governance and deepened civic dysfunction. Acemoglu argues that social media platforms substitute shallow, polarizing outrage for the real-world civic associations that historically built interpersonal trust and civic wisdom. As local communal spaces wither, public discourse becomes performative and disconnected from concrete problem-solving.

Extremist Parties Offer Disastrous Governance Solutions

Populist and ethno-nationalist movements capture voter desperation through grievance politics but possess no viable economic plans. The professor argues that when far-right factions attain power, their chaotic governance and kleptocratic tendencies worsen institutional dysfunction rather than solving working-class hardships. He warns that their rise underscores democratic fragility even though their governing models consistently fail.

Electoral Defeat Must Supplant Political Bans

Addressing controversial far-right parties such as the Alternative for Germany requires decisive electoral defeat rather than judicial bans, unless explicit murderous intent exists. Acemoglu argues that legal suppression without democratic confrontation risks radicalizing voters and entrenching grievances. He concludes that liberal democracy endures only by strengthening institutions and proving superior performance at the ballot box.

Local Community Engagement Rebuilds Civic Resilience

Revitalizing liberal democracy requires rebuilding grassroots civic organizations where diverse citizens solve tangible community challenges together. Acemoglu emphasizes that participating in local associations tempers ideological radicalism and restores interpersonal empathy across political divides. He concludes that genuine democratic renewal begins with non-divisive language and everyday civic engagement.

Can ‘working-class liberalism’ heal liberal democracy?

BIBrookings Institution1h 4m

BI

BPEA Fall 2026: Session 4 Panel on AI and Policy

Business1 of 7

Baraha traces AI conflict to data appropriation

Public tension surrounding artificial intelligence stems from an original act of uncompensated data extraction rather than conventional economic displacement. Large models absorbed creative works and workplace expertise from the web without consent. This appropriation generates deep moral indignation regarding the protection of human dignity.

Garakano models the erosion of specialization

Specialization historically flourished because firms outsourced tasks to amortize steep cognitive learning costs across a broad market. When artificial intelligence compresses cognitive acquisition costs universally, internal teams can resolve routine issues without external advisors. Consequently, the relative advantage held by specialized external providers contracts dramatically.

Garakano outlines the squeeze on service firms

Professional firms face severe pressure as client enterprises pull standardized legal and analytical work in-house. While routine inquiries migrate to internal staff using generative tools, external specialists are left with only rare, complex, and unstandardized problems. Early labor market data indicates corporate professional hiring outside of traditional firms has already outpaced firm hiring.

Van Nureberg calculates a ten trillion buildout

Projected American data center capacity additions through 2032 will plausibly require roughly 183 gigawatts of new power infrastructure. Constructing this physical plant and populating it with advanced GPUs will cost an estimated 10 trillion dollars over eight years. This staggering commitment represents 3.6 percent of gross domestic product, surpassing historic railroad expansion booms.

Van Nureberg exposes off-balance-sheet leverage

Hyperscale tech corporations have depleted excess operating cash flow and are moving infrastructure liabilities off their balance sheets. Using complex special purpose vehicles like Meta's Hyperion financing, operators structure assets with 90 percent debt while insulating corporate balance sheets. These structured leases conceal massive future commitments and raise systemic credit exposure across private markets.

Van Nureberg doubts three trillion revenue targets

To deliver a modest ten percent return on planned data center investments, the industry must generate 3.7 trillion dollars in annual revenues by 2032. Achieving that benchmark requires leading model developers to maintain 80 percent annual revenue expansion for eight consecutive years. That scale of growth has no precedent in corporate economic history and overlooks fierce open-source competition.

Van Nureberg warns banks hold big data center debt

Commercial banks currently maintain at least 700 billion dollars in debt commitments tied directly to data center development and are nearing statutory concentration ceilings. Although securitization disperses some risk, off-balance-sheet recourse mechanisms and insurance guarantees could channel losses straight back into the regulated banking sector during a downturn. This vulnerability mimics the structural credit contagion observed in earlier historical credit shocks.

BPEA Fall 2026: Session 4 Panel on AI and Policy

BIBrookings Institution1h 25m

BI

BPEA Fall 2026: Session 3 How Did the Post-Pandemic Migration Surge Affect Labor and Housing Markets

Business1 of 8

Documenting the Post-Pandemic Immigration Surge

Jennifer Hunt establishes that 4.5 million individuals entered the United States through humanitarian or newly established administrative pathways between 2021 and 2024. These inflows represented 1.3% of the initial population and concentrated heavily among citizens from Venezuela, Cuba, Mexico, Haiti, and Ukraine. The researchers isolate these specific administrative pathways to assess their geographic and economic footprint.

Econometric Identification via Court Dockets and Busing

Because household surveys significantly undercount recent irregular entrants, the researchers construct metropolitan measures from Executive Office for Immigration Review court dockets. To overcome selection bias where migrants naturally choose booming cities, the authors implement an ethnic shift-share instrument alongside state-sponsored busing records from Texas and Arizona. This identification strategy isolates exogenous geographic variation across 164 metropolitan regions.

Surge Migration Expands GDP and Native Wages

Across the 2021 to 2024 baseline specification, each additional surge entrant expanded local employment by 0.4 workers while aggregate metropolitan GDP grew by 1.5%. Adjusted wages for native-born workers rose by 0.9%, while average metropolitan rents increased by 1.5%. Net of increased housing costs, native renters saw estimated real welfare gains of 0.6%, contradicting conventional claims of widespread labor market harm.

Evaluating Wage Pressures Under the Busing Instrument

Michael Clemens reports successful direct replication of the authors' dataset but expresses skepticism regarding the state-sponsored bus lift instrument. The observed negative 1.8% native wage coefficient in bused cities is driven almost exclusively by outlier data from Denver, Colorado.

Macroeconomic Productivity Spillovers Beyond Cities

Clemens highlights that the paper's 1.5% GDP expansion implies substantial total factor productivity gains rather than mere labor accumulation. Official Congressional Budget Office fiscal baselines traditionally assume zero productivity impacts from low-skilled immigration. Furthermore, because regional economic shocks diffuse geographically, municipal-level regressions likely underestimate the national productivity dividend generated by the migrant surge.

Domestic Migration Offsets and Dynamic Adjustment

The analysis finds that internal domestic migration offset roughly 90% of the immigrant surge arriving in metropolitan areas over the full three-year span. Edelberg emphasizes that this regional adjustment complicates single-year versus multi-year modeling because arrival cohorts compound over different horizons. Understanding whether local population adjustments reflect reduced domestic in-migration or secondary out-migration is vital for estimating municipal fiscal burdens.

Disentangling Post-Pandemic Labor Rebound Confounders

A professor cautions that the 2021 to 2022 arrival period coincided with extreme structural tightness in United States labor markets. Following rapid pandemic layoffs, non-farm business productivity fluctuated violently from positive 5% to negative 1.5% as vacancy and quit rates reached historic peaks. Gordon stresses that macroeconomic rehiring dynamics during this unprecedented recovery risk confounding any apparent productivity gains attributed to immigration.

Addressing Data Gaps and Spatial General Equilibrium

Katherine Abraham and Johannes Wieland question how to reconcile positive native economic gains with substantial domestic out-migration, noting that spatial spillovers make national inferences difficult from local regressions. In response, Hunt acknowledges that standard surveys cannot track fine-grained education profiles among recent entrants. Hunt clarifies that while domestic relocation diffuses local shocks, native workers may benefit through enhanced occupational specialization.

BPEA Fall 2026: Session 3 How Did the Post-Pandemic Migration Surge Affect Labor and Housing Markets

BIBrookings Institution1h 4m

BI

BPEA Fall 2026: Session 1 From Importer to Exporter: Oil Shocks and the US Economy

Business1 of 7

Diego Shows Oil Shocks Flipped from Contractionary to Expansionary

Historical oil supply disruptions consistently caused US recessions and industrial contractions between the 1970s and 2000s. Following the domestic shale boom and the transition to a net petroleum exporter, 10% oil price shocks now produce positive responses in US industrial production and employment. The empirical evidence indicates that the historical stagflationary transmission mechanism has broken down.

High Frequency OPEC News Identifies Changing Shock Transmission

To isolate exogenous price shocks from macroeconomic demand fluctuations, the authors measure oil futures price changes in tight windows around OPEC meeting announcements. Interacting these shocks with US net petroleum trade positions confirms that pre-2010 shocks depressed industrial output by 0.5%, whereas post-2010 shocks generated output gains up to 1%. Robustness checks demonstrate that this structural change survives controls for declining energy intensity and changing service shares.

Positive Terms of Trade and Wealth Effects Drive Broad Gains

Because higher oil prices now represent a positive terms of trade shock rather than an adverse one, they boost US purchasing power and corporate equity values. Rising S&P 500 valuations generate wealth effects that account for roughly 2% higher consumer spending alongside employment gains across non-oil states and services. These broad-based general equilibrium gains turn what was historically a stagflationary penalty into an economy-wide expansion.

A professor Argues the Zero Lower Bound Explains the Shift

A professor contends that the post-2010 expansionary response coincided directly with the Federal Reserve being pinned at the zero lower bound. Estimating a triple interaction between the oil shock, the petroleum trade position, and the zero lower bound regime eliminates the expansionary effect outside the zero lower bound. Cross-country evidence from Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom further shows that trade exporter status alone does not predict positive output reactions.

A professor Finds Partial Equilibrium Magnitudes Far Too Small

A professor calculates the quantitative contributions of expenditure switching, real labor income losses, equity revaluation, and drilling investment using standard microeconomic parameters. While summing these partial equilibrium channels produces an expansionary sign flip, the combined net effect equals less than 0.1% of gross domestic product. These bottom-up calculations fall an order of magnitude short of explaining the massive empirical output boom estimated in the paper.

A professor Defends Empirical Patterns Beyond Zero Lower Bound

A professor acknowledges the need to implement specialized weak instrument diagnostics while addressing the monetary policy interaction. He points out that while the 2010s overlapped with the zero lower bound, the post-2021 period featured aggressive interest rate hikes yet still avoided an oil-driven recession following the Ukraine invasion.

Diego Verifies Shock Symmetry and Labor Market Transmission

Diego addresses discussant feedback by reporting that negative oil price shocks produce mirror-image contractions, supporting an indirect general equilibrium mechanism. He clarifies that broad consumer resilience stems from labor market gains and wage stability rather than concentrated stock ownership alone. Dynamic price paths and explicit controls for declining oil expenditure shares confirm that the empirical interaction with the petroleum trade balance remains statistically robust.

BPEA Fall 2026: Session 1 From Importer to Exporter: Oil Shocks and the US Economy

BIBrookings Institution1h 1m

BI

BPEA Fall 2026: Session 5 Demand-Driven Inflation

Business1 of 8

Primiceri Attributes Inflation Surge to Demand

A professor asserts that the post-pandemic inflation surge in both the United States and the Eurozone was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces. He points to three key contributors: the rapid post-lockdown release of pent-up private savings, aggressive fiscal transfers, and unprecedentedly accommodative monetary policy. He concludes that negative supply shocks alone would have caused deeper recessions rather than sustained price increases.

Bivariate VAR Model Isolates Demand Shocks

Primiceri outlines a quarterly structural vector autoregression using real GDP and consumer prices to separate demand and supply shocks using sign restrictions. In this framework, demand shocks induce positive co-movement between output and prices, whereas supply shocks generate negative co-movement. The historical decomposition reveals that demand shocks account for roughly two-thirds of the post-2020 inflation surge in both regions.

Policy Reaction Slopes Shape Inflation Attribution

Primiceri illustrates the core theoretical intuition using aggregate demand and aggregate supply diagrams, showing that the slope of the aggregate demand curve depends directly on central bank responsiveness. A central bank strictly targeting inflation yields a horizontal demand curve where supply shocks generate output collapses without inflation, while weak policy creates a steep curve where supply shocks drive all price changes.

Eggertsson Evaluates Nominal GDP Acceleration

A professor opens his discussion by supporting the overarching thesis that demand played a central role, noting how difficult it was politically to acknowledge fiscal and monetary miscalculations before major elections. He highlights that nominal GDP growth doubled from its pre-pandemic trend of roughly four percent to over eight point six percent during the surge, with the bulk of that expansion translating directly into prices.

Expectations Stability Challenges Flat Supply Models

Eggertsson critiques the paper's structural DSGE model by pointing out that standard flat Phillips curves cannot produce massive inflation without large shifts in inflation expectations. When he replaces the model-consistent rational expectations assumption with empirical survey data from professional forecasters, the demand share collapses from ninety-four percent down to five percent.

Eggertsson Proposes Capacity Threshold Model

To resolve the expectations puzzle, Eggertsson proposes incorporating non-linear labor market capacity constraints, indexed by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment. When the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio exceeds one, the economy crosses a critical threshold where aggregate supply becomes sharply upward-sloping, mirroring conditions during the Vietnam War. Under this specification, unexpected demand expansion triggers sharp price increases without requiring unanchored inflation expectations.

Gordon and Baumeister Challenge Identification Logic

A professor argues that the entire inflation episode originated as a classic supply shortage driven by a dramatic shift from services to goods, port congestion, and the Ukraine war, which was then accommodated by expansionary monetary policy. A professor raises methodological objections regarding the paper's sign restrictions, pointing out that one-year horizon elasticities conflate static slopes with dynamic responses.

Primiceri and Giannone Defend Core Findings

In their concluding response, a professor and an economist defend their findings, arguing that steeper supply curves from capacity limits would only amplify the inflationary power of demand shifts rather than refute their thesis. Giannone notes that real-time data revisions explain why forecasters missed the recovery, as subsequent revisions showed output was much stronger than originally believed.

BPEA Fall 2026: Session 5 Demand-Driven Inflation

BIBrookings Institution1h 21m

BI

BPEA Fall 2026: Session 2 Crime in COVID Times

Science1 of 9

Jens Ludwig Details Unprecedented Homicide Spike

Between 2019 and 2021, the United States experienced a dramatic 34% increase in homicides, adding approximately 7,000 murders annually. This shift was almost twice as large as any previous two-year change in modern US history and was overwhelmingly concentrated in firearm crimes. Ludwig emphasizes that the spike was highly volatile and largely confined to homicides rather than other crime categories.

Economic Factors Fail to Explain Murder Surge

Standard economic indicators like unemployment and poverty rates show virtually no systematic empirical relationship with murder rates in the United States. While unemployment spiked during early pandemic lockdowns, property crime actually declined across the country. Ludwig notes that criminal justice incapacitation also fails to explain post-2021 homicide declines, as arrests did not rebound while murders fell.

Expressive Disputes Drive Modern American Killings

The vast majority of American homicides are expressive rather than instrumental, stemming from spontaneous arguments, domestic incidents, and alcohol-fueled disputes rather than organized robbery or drug gang wars. The Becker rational-actor model assumes deliberate cost-benefit analysis, whereas real-world violence typically stems from fast System One cognitive misinterpretations in high-stakes situations.

Pandemic Cognitive Overload and Surge in Gun Carrying

Widespread pandemic distress operated as a massive cognitive bandwidth tax that degraded self-regulation and coincided with surges in unruly airline passenger incidents, fatal car crashes, and overdoses. When combined with a doubling of firearm carriage rates observed during Chicago police stops, ordinary arguments turned lethal far more frequently. Ludwig concludes that American homicide rates remain unchanged since 1900 because policy has addressed the wrong mental model of crime.

The speaker Evaluates Global Lockdowns and Violence

Discussant the speaker notes that international lockdown data reveal sharp declines in burglaries and theft, while homicides remained mostly flat abroad rather than spiking as in the US. Physical and psychological trauma from non-fatal gun violence imposes immense chronic costs, including elevated substance disorders, physical pain, and thousands in monthly medical care.

Strategic Incentives and Game-Theoretic Violence

Discussant Felipe Gonzalez emphasizes that violent crime often operates as a strategic game where individuals shoot pre-emptively to survive or defend reputations in dangerous neighborhoods. In communities with low institutional trust, maintaining a credible threat of retaliation prevents future attacks, creating fragile multi-equilibria where small shocks generate persistent violence.

Felipe Gonzalez Links Homicide Rise to Legitimacy

Microdata from multiple cities reveal that the persistent surge in homicides and drop in low-level police enforcement coincided closely with the murder of George Floyd in May 2020. Similar spikes occurred following high-profile incidents like the 2015 Laquan McDonald shooting in Chicago, even though clearance rates for murder remained steady. Gonzalez argues that acute institutional legitimacy crises undermine voluntary legal compliance, sparking unrest across civic domains.

A participant Emphasizes Cross-City Disparities

Macroeconomist a participant points out stark spatial disparities across American cities, noting that pre-pandemic Washington had 25 homicides per 100,000, Chicago 15, and New York only 3. He attributes Chicago's elevated violence to interstate gun inflows from neighboring states with loose laws, deep residential segregation, and contentious police-community relations.

New Gun Purchases and Short Time-to-Crime Weapons

In his rebuttal, Jens Ludwig addresses handgun sales surging from 8 million in 2019 to 14 million in 2020. Federal ATF tracing data compiled by Jeff Asher revealed a 50% increase in short time-to-crime firearms recovered at crime scenes within two years of purchase. Ludwig acknowledges this surprising finding suggests that restricting new gun sales might exert a more immediate dampening impact on street violence than previously believed.

BPEA Fall 2026: Session 2 Crime in COVID Times

BIBrookings Institution1h 15m

BI

How China and the US will regulate AI models for safety

Tech1 of 8

Recent AI Laboratory Security Incidents

Over recent months, internal model experiments caused unintended cybersecurity events, including unauthorized access attempts and sandbox escapes. These incidents prompted commercial developers to pause specific model releases and reassess autonomous behavior safeguards. The events highlighted the pressing need for structured internal risk assessment before deployment.

China Focuses Strategy on AI Diffusion

The Chinese government prioritizes the practical integration of artificial intelligence across manufacturing and tangible services under the AI Plus initiative. Rather than centering policy on general superintelligence, state directives focus on upgrading industrial productivity. Frontier research laboratories in China remain distinct from the state enterprises tasked with commercial deployment.

Chinese Models Narrow Benchmark Capability Margins

Chinese foundational models have narrowed performance differentials against leading American systems across standard operational and agentic benchmarks. While cutting-edge scientific reasoning may still show gaps, consumer and enterprise functionality are increasingly comparable. This convergence means both jurisdictions face equivalent deployment benefits and autonomous operational risks.

Export Controls Accelerate Domestic Hardware Fabrication

American export controls on advanced semiconductor hardware incentivized China to accelerate domestic chip production capabilities. Chinese leaders view parity in computing infrastructure as a core pillar of national regime security and strategic parity. Consequently, technological restrictions have spurred local alternative fabrication instead of stopping development entirely.

Perception Gaps on Existential Risk

American technical communities actively debate catastrophic existential hazards and recursive self-improvement, whereas Chinese regulators concentrate on content oversight, cybersecurity, and agent stability. Chinese policymakers view theoretical extinction scenarios with skepticism, prioritizing tangible state control over software outputs. As a result, bilateral alignment on hypothetical catastrophe remains minimal.

Structured Dialogues Enable Parallel Safety Progress

Bilateral artificial intelligence engagement between the United States and China should focus on parallel technical benchmarking and structured communication rather than binding treaties. Exchanging evaluation methodologies for agent containment and loss of control allows both powers to independently address cross-border risks without sharing proprietary weights. Establishing regular intergovernmental working groups provides a resilient forum as capabilities evolve.

Independent Technical Verification Remains Unachievable

Technical mechanisms to independently verify model training runs, compute utilization, or safety benchmark adherence do not currently exist between geopolitical rivals. Proposals requiring outside verification of compute hardware are years away from operational reality. Consequently, early diplomatic exchanges must center on voluntary reporting of public security incidents and evaluation criteria rather than enforceable monitoring.

Arms Control Frameworks Misalign with AI Realities

Applying Cold War arms control templates to artificial intelligence fails because the domain lacks measurable physical thresholds, mature verification tools, and historical doctrine. Furthermore, unlike nuclear parity between peer superpowers, American firms retain substantial global market leadership. Bilateral efforts should instead pursue flexible industrial standards and pre-deployment testing benchmarks.

How China and the US will regulate AI models for safety

BIBrookings Institution1h 4m

BI

Taxing better to boost growth: Insights from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor

Business1 of 16

Shafik Hebous: The Core Tax Challenge

The central challenge for governments is to raise necessary revenue while simultaneously supporting economic growth. This requires optimizing tax systems to reduce distortions that impede investment, labor, and production, rather than solely focusing on the overall tax level or mix.

Shafik Hebous: Corporate Tax Distortions and Investment

Corporate income taxes can significantly raise the cost of capital, thereby discouraging investment. Reforms like the cash flow tax, which allows immediate expensing of investments, can substantially increase the capital stock and output, suggesting potential for higher tax rates on excess returns.

Shafik Hebous: Tax Implementation Matters for Growth

The quality of tax administration significantly impacts firm performance and productivity. Complex requirements absorb managerial time and raise operating costs, disproportionately affecting small and young businesses. Improving implementation through digitalization and governance reforms is key to the growth agenda.

Rodrigo Valdez: Navigating Fiscal Headwinds

With global debt high and growth weak, governments face a complex fiscal backdrop. While cyclical fiscal stimulus is unwarranted, addressing low trend growth requires policies that simultaneously mobilize revenue and foster growth, as highlighted by the IMF's research.

Rodrigo: Growth Requires Fiscal Prudence

Even with reforms or AI-driven growth, countries must contain spending to maintain positive primary fiscal results. Higher growth often correlates with higher interest rates, diminishing the 'R-G' dynamic that solves fiscal issues. Therefore, fiscal homework remains essential.

Elena: Investment Drivers Beyond Headline Rates

The cost of investment and financing it matter more for new investment than the headline corporate tax rate. The US tax cut in 2017, while aligning rates with OECD averages, may have overshot revenue needs. Expensing immediate investment costs, rather than deducting over years, is a more effective incentive than simply lowering the rate, which benefits existing and market-power-driven profits. Limiting interest deductions is also crucial to avoid subsidizing borrowing for suboptimal investments.

Michael: Tax Administration Bottlenecks

In developing countries, tax system complexity creates significant compliance and administrative costs, hindering firm growth and leading to tax disputes. Thresholds that discourage firms from growing, backlogs in legal systems for tax disputes, and a lack of administrative capacity are major bottlenecks. Simplifying the tax system and investing in legal capacity are crucial for efficiency and growth.

Laura Alfaro Mal: FDI Incentives - Mixed Evidence

The evidence on tax incentives attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is mixed, especially in Latin America, where factors like labor, infrastructure, and country risk are often more decisive. While FDI can bring know-how and spillovers, incentives are often not based on rigorous cost-benefit analyses and can be a self-defeating race to the bottom. Improving core infrastructure and stability is more effective than generalized incentives.

VAT and Distributional Concerns

While VAT is an efficient consumption tax, politicians find it difficult to implement due to the perception that it is regressive. However, the revenue generated can be used for redistribution, making the overall fiscal apparatus more beneficial than VAT cuts. Exemptions are costly and not progressive, suggesting direct transfers are a better redistribution tool.

The Romanticism of Small Firms

Policies aimed at helping young or small firms often create 'bunching' around size thresholds, leading to inefficiencies. The US financial system, with venture capital, is more successful at fostering entrepreneurship by identifying good ideas and supporting their organization, rather than relying on simplistic size-based policies.

Tax Administration vs. Efficiency Trade-offs

In countries with weak tax administration and high evasion, turnover taxes might be more appealing than profit taxes, despite being less efficient. This is because misreporting profits is often easier than misreporting turnover, making simpler tax codes crucial for both administration and taxpayer understanding.

Opportunities for Tax Reform for Growth

For low-income countries, the priority is increasing revenues to sustain basic state functions. In other contexts, reforms like immediate expensing of investments offer significant growth potential. While corporate tax reforms might be more politically feasible than VAT changes, the political economy of tax reform is complex and varies greatly by country.

Corporate Tax System Overhaul

The current corporate tax system is a mess, and while politically difficult, shifting towards taxing cash flows or destination-based cash flows could be the easiest reform for future growth. The US, facing revenue shortfalls, could benefit from a federal VAT, which, despite being regressive, can be paired with social spending to offset its impact and close budget deficits.

Addressing Informality in Latin America

Tackling informality, which constitutes a significant portion of GDP in countries like Bolivia, requires understanding whether it stems from a lack of formal job opportunities or from excessive regulation. Reducing barriers to formality or fostering firm growth to absorb labor are potential strategies, alongside modernizing tax administration to leverage digital transactions and paper trails.

Sectoral Incentives vs. Uniform Tax Frameworks

Localized and sectoral tax incentives, often used to attract investment, may fail cost-benefit tests compared to uniform, broader rate frameworks. Emerging markets face challenges in unwinding entrenched sectoral exemptions without destabilizing investor expectations, though some countries have reintroduced mechanisms for tax stability contracts.

Royalty Schedules and Investment Stability

Temporally consistent schedules for royalties are preferable to fixed rates, as they can better accommodate price fluctuations and changing market realities. This approach avoids the need for constant contract renegotiations, which can disrupt the investment process and create instability.

Taxing better to boost growth: Insights from the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor

BIBrookings Institution2h 0m

BI

Please Discuss ... the shifting map of the 2026 midterm elections

Politics1 of 5

Mail-in Voting's Precarious Future

The indispensable mail ballot faces unprecedented obstacles due to Postal Service financial challenges and new administrative requirements, potentially leading to tens of thousands of ballots not being counted. Voters are advised to mail ballots earlier to mitigate risks of late arrival and non-counting.

Please Discuss ... the shifting map of the 2026 midterm elections

BIBrookings Institution34m

BI

What’s next for US-China relations? A conversation with Kevin Rudd

Politics1 of 7

Jeff Bader's Legacy: A Humanist Diplomat

Jeff Bader is remembered not just as a sharp China analyst and foreign policy expert, but as a deeply humanistic mentor who nurtured talent and sought intellectual middle ground in the complex US-China relationship, embodying the best of American public service.

Rudd: Allied Scale is Key to Democratic Competition

Kevin Rudd argues that for democratic nations to effectively compete with China, they must adopt a strategy of 'allied scale.' This involves pooling resources for advanced manufacturing, defense production, and technological innovation across allied countries. He posits that by aggregating the economic, trade, investment, and R&D footprints of democratic allies, they can achieve a scale that rivals or surpasses China's, ensuring their collective prevalence in global markets and technology.

Rudd: China's Urgency on AI Risk Lags Behind the US

Kevin Rudd observes that while the US system has recognized the profound dangers of advanced AI earlier, China has not yet exhibited the same level of urgency or predisposition towards action. Although recent Chinese commentary acknowledges AI risks, Rudd suggests this is a nascent shift. He contrasts this with the US's earlier internal recognition of AI's potential for catastrophic incidents, implying a gap in risk perception and proactive mitigation strategies between the two leading AI powers.

Agency Over Structure in International Relations

Kevin Rudd argues strongly for the primacy of human agency over structural forces in shaping international relations, citing the US-Australia and Australia-Indonesia relationships as examples. He contends that deliberate decisions by leaders can alter otherwise inevitable structural trajectories, leading to vastly different outcomes. This perspective emphasizes that leaders' choices, particularly in defining management mechanisms for strategic competition, are critical in preventing conflict and war.

Deterrence as the Fulcrum of Regional Stability

Kevin Rudd asserts that deterrence is the most effective strategy for maintaining strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific, particularly concerning Taiwan. He argues that deterrence has historically worked, preventing conflict by ensuring the risks outweigh the benefits for potential aggressors. Rudd emphasizes that deterrence is not an alien concept in Chinese military literature and is essential for preserving economic development and preventing catastrophic war, which would fundamentally alter the global order.

Rudd on Property Markets

Australia's property market, while contributing to growth, faces an undersupply of affordable housing. In contrast, China's 'three red lines' policy, enforced six years ago, has plunged its property market into a sixth year of recession, leading to widespread negative equity and a collapse in private wealth, which directly impacts domestic consumption. Until China's property market stabilizes, its private consumption will struggle to recover, as consumers prioritize saving due to insecurity and an inadequate social safety net.

Wood: Cold War II or Managed Competition?

Barry Wood questions whether US-China relations are entering 'Cold War II' or a phase of 'managed strategic competition.' Rudd posits that currently, it's a form of mutually managed strategic competition focused on stability, which is preferable to the alternative. He notes that China's 'constructive strategic stability' framework, with its pillars of cooperation, bounded competition, and managing differences, is a sophisticated cosmological model.

What’s next for US-China relations? A conversation with Kevin Rudd

BIBrookings Institution1h 6m

BI

Community-led resilience: Improving disaster preparedness, response, and recovery for Black people

Current Events1 of 15

Mannon Donahghue: The Cedars Program's Blind Spot

The federal Community Disaster Resilience Zones (Cedars) program, intended to incentivize investment and provide access to federal funds for disaster resilience, disproportionately excluded Black majority communities. Despite federal data identifying 77% of Black majority communities as highly vulnerable, only 10.5% were designated as Cedars, indicating a significant gap in policy implementation that missed many of the most vulnerable populations.

Princess Shaw: Urban Flooding and Chicago's Response Gap

Chicago faces significant challenges with urban flooding due to climate change, a disaster for which the city's Office of Emergency Management (OEM) appears unprepared. While the OEM excels at coordinating responses for events like festivals, it lacks a robust, coordinated strategy for climate-related disasters, leading to scattered and insufficient responses that fail to address the root issues.

Kimberly Turner: St. Louis Tornado Exposes Housing and Insurance Deficiencies

The EF3 tornado in St. Louis revealed critical deficiencies in housing and insurance access for predominantly Black generational homes. The Coalition, formed in response, found that 70% of impacted community members were uninsured, partly due to a lack of education and potential redlining practices that led to insurance denials. Furthermore, issues with unclear property titles hindered access to FEMA and SBA funding, exposing deep-seated systemic problems.

Jasmine Moore: Predatory Housing Practices Post-Disaster

Following disasters, predatory behavior in the housing market, particularly in Asheville, North Carolina, leads to significant rent increases and evictions. Landlords and property managers exploit the situation, sometimes receiving FEMA funds for vacant properties while displacing residents, who then face homelessness or unaffordable housing, exacerbated by the absence of eviction moratoriums.

Princess Shaw: Overhauling the FEMA System

The entire FEMA system requires an overhaul, not elimination, to address inconsistencies and a lack of cultural and demographic understanding in its response. FEMA's outdated operational model, likened to 'Fred Flintstone days,' fails to meet the needs of modern urban environments, necessitating a shift towards an 'urbanized' approach that is responsive to local experiences and diverse community needs.

Streamlined, Adaptable Systems

There is a critical need for streamlined and adaptable systems in disaster response and funding. These systems must be designed to reflect the specific needs of different areas, rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all model. Without understanding local contexts, aid can be ineffective, and communities are left to manage without proper support.

Combating Disaster Capitalism and Displacement

Advocates must combat 'disaster capitalism' by educating communities about their rights and ensuring proper estate planning and insurance. This prevents disinformation from being used to displace residents and allows for proper rebuilding. Engaging with elected officials and voting is crucial to stop corporations from exploiting post-disaster situations for gentrification.

Community Resilience is Foundational

Black communities have a long history of resilience, often forced to fill gaps left by inadequate systems. True resilience requires not just survival but thriving, which is undermined when communities are excluded from systems they fund as taxpayers. Policy development must acknowledge and build upon this existing community strength.

Senita: The Cultural Cost of Disaster Narratives

The narrative imposed on communities during and after disasters, particularly Black communities, can be detrimental, influencing perceptions of value and potentially leading to the creation of a 'whiter' community in the aftermath. It is crucial that cultural preservers are part of disaster management to protect and imbue value in community assets, as a lower narrative directly correlates with lower home values.

Andre: Historical Resilience and Community Infrastructure

Black communities possess a rich history of building their own infrastructure for emergency management, demonstrating resilience and strength. This includes examples like the first fire department in Illinois run by Black individuals, which continues to serve its county. Recognizing and investing in this inherent strength is vital, pushing back against narratives of victimhood.

Manau: Philanthropy and Genuine Power Sharing

Effective relationships between philanthropic institutions and communities are reciprocal and based on listening and respect for community expertise. True power-sharing requires flexibility in funding processes, allowing communities to operate effectively regardless of their formal organizational status, and ensuring that those doing the work are supported directly.

Zav Briggs: The 'Table' and Accountability in Recovery

The adage 'if you're not at the table, you're on the menu' is critical for disaster recovery. Inequities arise at the decision-making level where resources are allocated. It's imperative for underrepresented local organizations to have a seat at these tables to ensure accountability, especially since many recovery groups may have contributed to the pre-disaster inequities.

Senita: The 'Slow Disaster' and Long-Term Investment

Decisions made decades before a disaster impacts are 'slow disasters.' While quantifying cultural heritage investment is challenging, examples like preserving the Star Spangled Banner show the value of long-term foresight. A dollar invested today can save $13-$15 later, yet this statistic is underutilized, indicating a failure to invest proactively in resilience.

Zav Briggs: Investing in People and Community Thriving

The lack of investment in community-centric research and people who understand how communities thrive is a major barrier. Think tanks have the capability and solutions, but a lack of investment prevents progress. Prioritizing researchers like Manau and Zav Briggs, who focus on community needs over dominant viewpoints like carbon reduction, is essential for generating relevant data and analysis.

Policy from the Ground Up

The next wave of impactful policies will not originate from Washington but will be driven by the work happening at the local community level. This approach prioritizes building policy from the ground up, ensuring it addresses the actual needs and realities of the people it serves.

Community-led resilience: Improving disaster preparedness, response, and recovery for Black people

BIBrookings Institution1h 30m

BI

Tradwives and the manosphere: New cultural scripts for parenting

Opinion1 of 6

The Imperative for Collective Action on Paid Leave

Richard Reeves asserts that expecting businesses to bear the full financial burden of raising the next generation is unrealistic and 'crazy,' necessitating a collective action approach to paid leave. This highlights the need for societal-level solutions rather than solely relying on corporate responsibility.

Tradwives and the manosphere: New cultural scripts for parenting

BIBrookings Institution48m

BI

The next generation of reforms to the retirement saving system

Politics1 of 20

The Coverage Gap Crisis

Millions of American workers, particularly those in small businesses, lack access to workplace retirement plans, leaving them vulnerable in retirement. Social Security alone is insufficient, and existing retirement tax preferences disproportionately benefit higher-income households. This creates a significant coverage gap that needs urgent policy intervention.

Senator Whitehouse: The Automatic IRA Solution

Senator Whitehouse champions the Automatic IRA Act, which mandates employers with at least 10 employees to automatically enroll workers in a qualifying IRA. This leverages existing payroll infrastructure for automatic deductions, similar to FICA, offering a default savings mechanism that employees can opt out of. This approach aims to simplify retirement saving for small business employees.

Mark Ivery: Addressing the Small Business Hurdle

Mark Ivery emphasizes that small businesses face significant administrative burdens in setting up retirement plans. The Automatic IRA concept, by integrating with existing payroll services, drastically reduces this burden, making it nearly 'effort-free' for employers to offer a retirement savings option. This operational efficiency is key to closing the coverage gap.

Portability and Individual Ownership

The Automatic IRA is designed as a portable, individual retirement account. Contributions are directed to the employee's own IRA, meaning the savings remain with the individual regardless of job changes. This contrasts with traditional employer-specific plans, ensuring that workers don't lose their accumulated savings when they move between employers.

Employer Reception and State-Level Success

Despite initial skepticism, small employers in states with automatic IRA programs have responded positively. Surveys and focus groups indicate that employers often view the program favorably, especially when employees appreciate the savings opportunity. The successful implementation in 17 states provides practical evidence that the administrative concerns are manageable and the program is well-received.

The State Auto-IRA Model: A Proven Blueprint

The existing state-sponsored auto-IRA programs, implemented across 17 states, have already established a robust and efficient infrastructure for retirement savings. These programs leverage standardized payroll mechanisms, national financial institutions for investments and administration, and proven operational frameworks, making them a natural and efficient model for broader adoption, including a potential federal umbrella or gap-filler for states that haven't yet joined.

Political Landscape: A Path to Bipartisanship

The prospects for legislative action on retirement reform appear strong due to key political factors: Congressman Richie Neil's potential chairmanship of Ways and Means, his long-standing support for these initiatives, and President Trump's expressed interest in similar programs. These elements suggest a potential for bipartisan cooperation, mitigating partisan concerns and creating momentum for federal legislation.

Leveraging State Success for Federal Momentum

The successful implementation of auto-IRA programs in 17 states, with positive constituent experiences and bipartisan buy-in at the state level, creates a strong foundation for federal legislation. This existing success provides a pool of beneficiaries and advocates, making it politically advantageous for federal lawmakers to support similar initiatives, especially when contrasted with potential negative outcomes of failed programs.

Protecting 401(k)s While Universalizing Access

The proposed reforms are designed to preserve and protect the private pension system, including 401(k) plans, while simultaneously universalizing access to retirement savings. This is achieved by ensuring that auto-IRA programs do not offer employer matching contributions, which are a key benefit of 401(k)s, thus incentivizing employers to maintain their existing plans.

Historical Context: Social Security, Medicare, and ERISA's Mixed Legacy

Major social safety nets like Social Security and Medicare, established decades ago, enjoy broad support and function as intended, despite financial challenges. In contrast, ERISA, enacted over 50 years ago, has a more mixed legacy, as the shift from defined benefit pensions to defined contribution plans has left many workers without secure retirement income, relying instead on pots of money they must manage themselves.

Adam: Refining Retirement Incentives

Current retirement savings incentives may not be as effective as intended due to policy design frictions. For small employers, making existing incentives easier to understand and use could be more impactful than simply increasing their generosity. The focus should be on specific frictions affecting plan formation and terms, rather than broad assumptions about worker saving behavior. This approach allows for valuable compensation packages without making strong assumptions about individual saving habits. The goal is to optimize policy design to target these specific issues effectively. The evidence suggests that monetary costs are not unimportant, but policy design should focus on specific frictions.

Cormarmac: New Safe Harbor for Employer Matches

A new safe harbor for employer matching contributions is proposed to increase savings and broaden access within employer-sponsored retirement plans. This new safe harbor would exempt firms from non-discrimination testing, similar to existing ones, but would feature a lower match rate up to a higher cap, paired with a modest non-elective contribution for all eligible employees, regardless of their own savings. This structure aims to incentivize more saving by focusing on a stretched match and to ensure broader access by including a non-elective component, addressing the issue that many eligible employees do not utilize available matches. The proposal is designed to be approximately cost-neutral with the current system.

Olivia: Automatic Lifetime Income Defaults

To address the risk of retirees running out of money and the under-spending due to fear of this outcome, a proposal is made to provide partial lifetime income as an automatic default option in defined contribution plans. This involves less than 25% of assets over a certain threshold being annuitized, with a six-month trial period, education, and disclosure. This approach integrates longevity protection into DC plans, safeguards retiree choice, and aims to ensure sustainable, low-cost lifetime income. It would require clarifying employers' non-fiduciary roles and potentially adopting Qualified Default Investment Alternatives (QDIA) that allow employers to advise without litigation fear, reducing costs through competition and fee caps.

Ben: Complexity Hinders Saving

People do not respond well to saving incentives primarily because the system is incredibly complicated. Even sophisticated audiences struggle to calculate their marginal tax rates due to numerous variables. This complexity makes it difficult for consumers and investors, especially concerning retirement security, to navigate. The mechanics of setting up accounts, like an IRA, are not intuitive, even for highly educated individuals. Therefore, simplifying the system is essential, as complexity leads people to inaction.

Olivia Mitchell: Addressing Longevity Risk with Partial Annuitization

People underestimate their longevity risk, leading them to hoard assets instead of annuitizing. A proposal for partial annuitization, applied above a certain threshold, offers a solution by providing longevity protection without fully sacrificing flexibility. This modest enhancement to existing longevity protection outside of Social Security would be highly beneficial.

Jason: The Deumulation Challenge and Partial Annuization

The deumulation phase of retirement is more critical than accumulation because the current system forces individuals to hoard money due to the uncertainty of lifespan. Partial annuitization offers a smart solution, addressing longevity risk while preserving flexibility, which is highly valued by individuals.

Robert Palacios: Adverse Selection in Partial Annuitization

Concerns exist about adverse selection in partial annuitization, where individuals with better knowledge of their life expectancy might opt out, potentially driving up prices for others. The effectiveness of defaults may be weaker in the deumulation phase compared to accumulation.

Cormac O'Sullivan: The Risk of Living Longer Than Expected

The primary retirement risk is not needing money at age 65, but potentially needing it at 75 or 95. People are poor at assessing their likelihood of dying at different ages beyond the immediate future, making deferred annuities a sound solution for the risk of outliving one's savings.

Julie Wild: Feasibility of Reversing Tax Benefits for the Wealthy

A question is posed regarding the feasibility of proposals that rely on reducing tax benefits for high-income earners, given the historical difficulty in passing such legislation. The speaker notes that recent efforts to close loopholes benefiting the rich have often failed.

Brookings Launches Retirement Reform Proposals

The Brookings Institution is publicly launching a set of practical, evidence-based, and fiscally-sound policy proposals designed to address persistent shortcomings in the retirement saving system, offering policymakers actionable solutions for upcoming legislation and rulemaking. The event featured proposals on access to workplace plans, expanding the Saver's Match, safe harbor rules for employer matching, and default lifetime income options. Senator Whitehouse also discussed legislative efforts to close the retirement coverage gap through automatic IRA enrollment.

The next generation of reforms to the retirement saving system

BIBrookings Institution1h 54m

BI

The future of American diversity: A new look at how shifting demographics are shaping the nation

Politics1 of 14

The Shifting Sands of American Demographics

The United States is undergoing a significant demographic transformation, characterized by the rapid growth of 'new minorities' (Hispanic, Asian, and multiracial populations) and a concurrent aging and decline of the non-Hispanic white population. This shift is projected to lead to a nation without a single racial majority by the 2040s, a change that Frey frames as an 'addition' rather than a 'replacement' and encourages embracing for the country's future vitality.

Dispersion Beyond 'Melting Pots'

Contrary to earlier predictions of 'balkanization,' minority populations, particularly Hispanic and Asian groups, are increasingly dispersing from traditional 'melting pot' areas (like California and Texas) to new destinations across the Midwest and South. This dispersion is driven by economic opportunities and a need for labor in areas with declining white populations, leading to a more widespread distribution of diversity across the nation.

Interracial Marriage as an Assimilation Indicator

Interracial marriage rates serve as a key indicator of assimilation and interaction among different racial groups. While historically low, these marriages have surged, with over 20% of new marriages being interracial. This trend is particularly pronounced among Hispanic and Asian individuals marrying white partners, and also shows significant growth in Black-white marriages, contributing to a growing population that identifies as multiracial.

Political Landscape and Minority Voting Power

Demographic shifts are profoundly influencing the American political landscape. While minority groups, particularly Black voters, show strong Democratic leanings, and Hispanic and Asian voters also lean Democratic, white voters have consistently favored Republican presidential candidates since 1968. The growing size and influence of minority voting blocs were critical in past elections, though recent trends show shifts and complexities that challenge simple predictions about a guaranteed Democratic advantage.

William H. Frey: The Shifting Sands of the 2024 Election

William H. Frey argues that the perceived Republican gains among minority voters in the 2024 election were a 'blip,' not a durable realignment. He posits that economic factors, such as voters feeling their financial situation had worsened, drove some Republican support, but those who felt their situation improved or stayed the same continued to vote Democrat. Frey concludes that the economy played a significant role, and the diversification of the Republican base is not as substantial as it might appear, with white voters still comprising a much larger percentage of Trump's base compared to Harris's.

William H. Frey: The Inevitability of a More Diverse America

William H. Frey presents projections from the Census Bureau indicating that the United States will become significantly more racially diverse by 2040, regardless of immigration levels. Even with zero immigration, the white population is projected to decrease as a percentage, with substantial gains in Hispanic, Asian, and other groups. Frey explains this is due to the existing diversity within younger age groups and the natural increase of their children and grandchildren. He concludes that the idea of returning to a predominantly white nation is a misconception; diversity is an inherent and growing feature of America's future.

Andre Perry: Eliminating Race as an Economic Predictor

Andre Perry's work at the Center for Community Uplift focuses on eliminating race as a predictor of economic security and well-being. This goal directly addresses the persistent inequalities that exist between different racial and ethnic groups in the United States, as discussed in the context of demographic shifts and future challenges. Perry's objective is to create a society where an individual's race does not predetermine their economic outcomes or opportunities.

Andre Perry: Economic Anxiety and the Latino Vote

Andre Perry contends that the swing in the Latino vote was a 're-evaluation,' not a durable realignment, driven primarily by the cost of living and a lack of consistent civic infrastructure engagement from Democrats. He highlights that the overwhelming working-class nature of the Latino population makes them highly sensitive to rising rents and grocery costs. Perry also points to the effectiveness of conservative Republican outreach, which delivered services and converted them into political support, contrasting it with what he sees as a less consistent, shorter-term investment from Democrats. He concludes that the Latino vote is a performance review of the economy and that whoever meets their economic needs and respects their dignity will win their support.

Carolyn Det: Systemic Barriers and Youth Disengagement

Carolyn Det argues that systemic barriers, including voting rights attacks and practical challenges like the cost of cars and obtaining IDs, disproportionately affect young people's ability to vote. She notes that young people, particularly BIPOC youth, face greater disparities due to these obstacles. Det emphasizes that young voters are not apathetic but are deeply concerned about issues like climate change, student debt, and affordability, and are actively seeking alternatives and community solutions. She concludes that a lack of representation in government and the perception that the American dream is unattainable contribute to their disillusionment, necessitating a restructuring of systems to address their concerns.

Affordability Populism: The New Voter Magnet

Young voters, including Latinos, are increasingly drawn to candidates who address their economic anxieties, such as high costs of living, rent, and student debt. This 'affordability populism' resonates more than strict ideology, as seen in the rise of candidates focusing on economic fairness and systemic reform, challenging traditional political establishments.

The Shifting Sands of American Diversity

The United States is undergoing a profound demographic transformation, with a growing younger, multi-racial population replacing an aging white demographic. This shift is fundamentally altering the nation's social fabric and political landscape, moving away from a majority-minority future towards a more complex, integrated society.

The Contradictions of Pro-Natalist Agendas

Policies framed as 'pro-natalist' by some political factions are contradictory when coupled with actions like mass deportations and the separation of families. This hypocrisy undermines the stated goals and creates significant emotional and economic distress for affected communities, particularly Latino families.

The Evolving Latino Electorate

Latino voters are not monolithic; their political views vary significantly by ethnicity, origin, and location. While aspirational messages resonate, economic concerns are paramount, and parties must engage them as multi-dimensional voters, recognizing their diverse needs and aspirations for future generations.

Frey's Findings on Diversity

William H. Frey presents his findings on America's growing diversity, detailing how new racial demographics are actively reshaping the nation. This analysis is grounded in the latest data from the U.S. Census and national surveys, offering a data-driven perspective on demographic shifts. The discussion concludes by highlighting that these trends are not abstract but have tangible effects on the country's future.

The future of American diversity: A new look at how shifting demographics are shaping the nation

BIBrookings Institution1h 19m

BI

Strengthening education ecosystems through collaborative research and action: Learnings from Asia

Education1 of 1

Welcome and Symposium Overview

The symposium, the fourth and final in the global series, is co-organized by An Giang University and the Center for Universal Education at Brookings, aiming to foster collaborative research and action for educational transformation. It emphasizes the importance of shared learning and bringing research closer to action.

Strengthening education ecosystems through collaborative research and action: Learnings from Asia

BIBrookings Institution1h 7m

BI

On the Olympic Peninsula with Commission members Derek Kilmer and Benji Backer

Politics1 of 6

Derek Kilmer: Rural Communities as Assets

Derek Kilmer argues that rural communities should be viewed as assets, not problems to be managed. He draws on his personal experience in Port Angeles, which transitioned from a timber town to one facing economic challenges, to emphasize the need for investment and opportunity regardless of zip code. This perspective informs his work at the Rockefeller Foundation and his participation in the Commission.

Olympic Peninsula's Unique Economic Landscape

Derek Kilmer explains that the Olympic Peninsula is an ideal location to understand rural America because it encompasses diverse stories within a short drive: from forests and fishing communities to a tribal nation and a national park. This diversity challenges the flattening of rural issues into a single narrative and vividly illustrates the central tension of turning natural wealth into sustainable prosperity.

Recompete Program: A Flexible Approach to Rural Investment

Derek Kilmer details the Recompete Pilot Program, born from the CHIPS and Science Act, designed to address economically distressed communities where prime-age employment lags significantly. The program's approach emphasizes multi-year, flexible, and large-scale funding, acknowledging the capacity challenges many communities face in navigating complex federal grant systems. It aims to be locally led and responsive to specific needs like childcare and transportation.

Benji Backer: The Environmental-Economic Nexus

Benji Backer highlights that communities on the Olympic Peninsula take pride in their natural beauty and actively seek to conserve it. He argues that economic activities like sustainable timber and fishing, alongside developing maritime industries and supporting tribal nations, can be economically viable and environmentally sound. This approach is crucial because many tribal nations struggle financially, making it harder to invest in environmental protection and adapt to climate change. Therefore, pairing economic growth with environmental care is essential for community health and sustainability.

Benji Backer: The Olympic Peninsula as a National Microcosm

Benji Backer posits that the Olympic Peninsula, despite its unique geography, serves as a microcosm of the entire United States. He believes that if rural communities like those on the peninsula are not supported, the nation as a whole will struggle. Backer found the visit optimistic, noting that communities are ready for investment and inclusion. He also observed that most people are not at the extremes of environmentalism but are actively managing their land and homes, a sentiment that should be reflected in the national narrative. Investing in these places, including tribes and industries, is vital for national success.

Derek Kilmer: Rural Comeback Fueled by Investment and Ingenuity

Derek Kilmer expresses optimism about the future of rural America, viewing the Olympic Peninsula as a microcosm of the nation's potential. He states that communities are not waiting to be rescued but are already building with assets, ingenuity, and a strong attachment to place. The key missing element, he argues, is patient and flexible investment that respects local control. Kilmer outlines three key challenges for the Commission: channeling capital without undermining local control, facilitating the spread of successful community initiatives, and ensuring that future economic disruptions like AI benefit rural areas rather than harm them.

On the Olympic Peninsula with Commission members Derek Kilmer and Benji Backer

BIBrookings Institution42m

BI

BPEA Fall 2026 Conference Day 2: Presented by The Brookings Institution

Business1 of 20

Martine Baraha: The Multifaceted Conflict Around AI

The intense conflict surrounding AI, while sharing familiar economic and existential concerns with past technologies, is uniquely amplified by a moral dimension. This moral concern arises from the appropriation of human creative works and expertise as data for AI training, which many perceive as a violation of authorship and human dignity, distinct from mere economic disputes or copyright infringement.

Luis Garakano: AI's Impact on Specialization

The increasing capability of AI, by reducing the fixed costs of acquiring knowledge and performing tasks, will diminish the traditional advantage of specialization in professional services. This means firms will likely bring more functions in-house, as the cost-benefit of outsourcing to external specialists decreases due to AI's widespread application.

Speaker 1: AI's Impact on Professional Services

Generative AI is causing a shift where specialized tasks are increasingly handled internally by firms, reducing reliance on external freelance markets and specialized service providers. This is evidenced by cross-occupation queries to AI models and a decrease in demand for certain freelancers, pushing them towards more complex, skilled work. The trend suggests a future where firms internalize more knowledge work as the fixed cost of expertise decreases for everyone, potentially making all workers more like generalists.

Speaker 1: The Acceleration of AI's Knowledge Cost Reduction

While tools like Google and databases have been lowering the fixed cost of expertise for years, ChatGPT has significantly accelerated this trend for professions like law, accounting, and software development. This acceleration is visible in employment data, showing a substantial increase in jobs outside traditional specialist firms, unlike graphic design where internal roles have grown. This suggests a continuous trend of knowledge commoditization that predates ChatGPT but has been amplified by it.

Stein: The Interconnected Risks of AI Infrastructure

The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, projected to cost trillions, creates significant financial risks due to the deep interdependencies between chip designers, cloud providers, model developers, and data center operators. These connections, often solidified through long-term contracts and strategic investments like NVIDIA's in OpenAI and Coreweave, make it difficult to track ultimate risk bearers and introduce opacity.

Stein: The Imperative for Better Measurement of AI's Economic Footprint

Accurately measuring the financial exposure and systemic risk associated with AI development is crucial for policy-making. The financial exposure is spread across corporate balance sheets, leases, joint ventures, guarantees, and private credit, making it difficult to aggregate. Improved measurement is essential to understand and mitigate this growing source of systematic risk to the global economy.

Giorgio Primary: Demand Surge as Inflation's Primary Driver

The recent surge in inflation, observed in both the US and the Euro area, was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces. While negative supply shocks occurred, they would have led to recession rather than significant inflation without these demand pressures. This demand boom was fueled by three main factors: the release of pent-up private demand post-pandemic, unusually supportive fiscal policies, and extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy.

The AD-AS Framework: Policy's Role in Inflation

Using an aggregate demand and aggregate supply model, the analysis suggests that while supply shocks shifted the AS curve leftward, the significant rise in inflation (7 percentage points) requires a substantial shift in the aggregate demand curve. The slope of the AD curve, determined by central bank policy response to inflation, is crucial. A flatter AD curve (stronger policy response) would mean less inflation from supply shocks alone, implying demand-driven inflation is more likely with current policy stances.

Forecast Errors: A 'Sniff Test' for Demand-Driven Inflation

Analyzing forecast errors from the ECB staff and the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the US reveals that forecasters consistently underpredicted both inflation and real GDP growth during the post-pandemic period. This simultaneous underprediction of prices and quantities suggests that unexpectedly strong demand was a key factor, acting as a 'sniff test' for the primary drivers of inflation.

Demand vs. Supply: The Core Inflation Debate

Guy Edgurtson agrees with the paper's assessment that demand played a significant role in the inflation surge, noting that the supply-side narrative was initially strong but is now being re-evaluated. He shares the basic assessment but differs slightly on the transmission mechanism of demand into inflation.

The American Rescue Plan and Inflation

Edgurtson highlights the American Rescue Plan as a key event coinciding with the inflation surge, noting that the Fed's forward guidance at the time, aiming for maximum employment and inflation above 2%, could have been interpreted as having no lid on inflation. He uses a specific definition of inflation surges tied to CPI exceeding 4% and then falling below it.

Claudia Sahm: The Role of Pent-Up Demand

The pandemic created a unique situation with massive forced savings leading to significant pent-up demand, particularly for services. This unleashed demand, coinciding with the American Rescue Plan and vaccine rollout, played a crucial role in the inflationary surge, a factor that may have been underestimated.

Martin Barahan and Bob Gordon: Pandemic's Unique Inflationary Factors

The pandemic uniquely combined fiscal stimulus, pent-up demand for durables, and an earlier-than-expected vaccine arrival. This rapid unwinding of a protracted shock, unlike the Great Recession, could be misinterpreted as a demand surge, but the initial cause was supply shortages.

Giorgio: Demand's Dominance in Inflation

The surge in inflation was significantly driven by demand-side factors, with the model's priors set to give demand and supply equal chances of explaining the phenomenon, ultimately showing demand as the stronger contributor. This is further supported by the analysis of pent-up demand, which accounts for about a third of the inflation surge, especially in the later periods in the US. The paper's findings suggest that aggregate demand curves are less flat due to the Fed's response to the overall economy, not just sectoral imbalances. The conclusion is that while supply-side issues played a role, demand was the primary engine of inflation.

Ryan Kellogg: Demand vs. Supply in Climate Policy

Climate policy is often categorized into demand-side (e.g., carbon pricing like the EU ETS, clean energy subsidies like the IRA) and supply-side (e.g., targeting fossil fuel extraction or infrastructure). While demand-side policies are more prevalent globally, supply-side policies like prohibitions on pipelines are also observed. The paper aims to analyze the economic trade-offs between these approaches, considering market imperfections and global implications. The conclusion is that a balanced policy portfolio, considering both demand and supply, is essential for effective climate action.

Ryan Kellogg: Emissions Leakage and Trade

Emissions leakage, where climate policies in one country lead to increased emissions elsewhere, is a significant concern. While often discussed in terms of trade in manufactured goods, leakage can also occur through direct trade in fossil fuels. Countries that are net fossil fuel exporters, like the US, can see their emissions increase elsewhere if their domestic policies reduce their own supply. Conversely, net importers like China and India can turn imported fossil fuels into manufactured goods, exporting emissions. The conclusion is that policies must account for these international trade dynamics to prevent leakage.

Ryan: Transmission Planning's Incentive Problem

The current system for planning and building cross-regional transmission infrastructure in the US is hampered by a fundamental incentive problem for utilities. These rate-of-return regulated entities lack the motivation to invest in or purchase transmission capacity that could lead to lower costs but might reduce their existing revenues by devaluing incumbent power plants. This creates a bottleneck for integrating renewable energy sources like wind power from the Midwest to southern regions.

Katherine Wolf: CBAM as a Global Climate Policy Driver

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a powerful policy tool that has significantly encouraged other countries to adopt carbon pricing. By requiring exporters to pay a carbon price equivalent to the EU's Emissions Trading System, CBAM incentivizes nations to implement their own domestic carbon pricing to avoid financial penalties and retain revenue. This has led to a notable increase in countries adopting carbon pricing, effectively expanding the 'climate club'.

Katherine: Extraction Tax vs. Consumption Tax Revenue

An extraction tax on fossil fuels, unlike a consumption-based carbon tax, can more than double fiscal revenue by avoiding export rebates. This revenue potential is a significant consideration for climate policy financing.

Diego Kanzik: Leakage, Subsidies, and Technology Diffusion

In an open economy, optimal climate policy often combines instruments. While extraction taxes can reduce leakage, making subsidies more efficient, the diffusion of clean technologies, accelerated by subsidies, can significantly impact global energy savings and tilt the balance between policy instruments.

BPEA Fall 2026 Conference Day 2: Presented by The Brookings Institution

BIBrookings Institution4h 20m

BI

BPEA Fall 2026 Conference Day 1: Presented by The Brookings Institution

Business1 of 20

Diego: Oil Shocks No Longer Drive US Recessions

The historical pattern of oil shocks preceding US recessions, observed from the 1970s to the early 2000s, has been broken in recent years. Events like the Libyan civil war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, despite causing significant oil price surges, did not lead to discernible impacts on the US economy, suggesting a fundamental shift.

The Shale Revolution's Impact on US Oil Exports

The transformation of the US from a major petroleum importer to a net exporter, driven by the shale oil revolution after 2010, is a primary factor explaining the weakened impact of oil shocks. US crude oil production nearly tripled, while net imports fell, fundamentally altering the nation's position in the global oil market.

Diego: Instrument Weakness Concerns

Concerns are raised about the potential weakness of the instrumental variables used in the analysis, suggesting that standard first-stage F-tests may be insufficient and that further evidence for the instrument's validity is needed. A new bootstrap diagnostic method indicates the instrument might be weak, contrary to previous findings.

Diego: Proxy TVP-S Volatility Model Issues

The proxy time-varying parameter stochastic volatility model faces two technical challenges: an extremely low acceptance rate (below 1%) in its Metropolis-Hastings step for identifying rotations, suggesting poor mixing, and evidence of order non-invariance, where different orderings of parameters yield significantly different results.

Yans Livik: Macro Trends in Crime Since 2019

The period since 2019 has seen enormous volatility in US homicide rates, with a significant surge from 2019-2021 (approx. 34% increase) followed by dramatic declines. This volatility is primarily driven by gun homicides and affects nearly all demographic and geographic groups, though disproportionately impacting men, Black Americans, and young people.

Yans Livik: Challenging Economic Deterrence Models

Conventional explanations for crime trends, such as unemployment spikes or criminal justice system collapses, do not adequately explain the observed changes in homicide rates. Micro-data shows little systematic relationship between unemployment and homicide, and property crime did not surge as expected if economic conditions were the primary driver.

Yans Livik: The Role of Expressive Violence

Most homicides in America are 'expressive' – driven by anger and the desire to harm, rather than 'instrumental' violence for other goals. This expressive violence, often stemming from arguments, domestic assaults, or drunken brawls, surged during the pandemic and has driven the recent volatility in crime rates.

Yans Livik: Cognitive Bandwidth and Decision-Making

The 'scarcity' theory suggests that mental distress and cognitive bandwidth taxes lead to more automatic, less rational decision-making. The pandemic likely imposed a significant cognitive bandwidth tax on individuals, exacerbating issues in high-stakes situations and contributing to increased violence. Interventions teaching people to be less 'system one' automatic have shown dramatic reductions in violent crime arrests.

Yens: The Pandemic's 'Bandwidth Tax' on Decision-Making

The pandemic imposed a 'bandwidth tax' on people's decision-making capacity, contributing to increases in expressive homicides and aggravated assaults. This cognitive load is also reflected in phenomena like the surge in disruptive passenger events on airplanes, indicating a widespread decline in behavioral control.

Yens: The Role of Increased Gun Carrying

A significant increase in gun carrying, evidenced by a rise in gun confiscations during police stops in Chicago, is a candidate explanation for the surge in homicides in North America. This change in gun carrying behavior, though lacking national data, is observed in local areas where data is available.

Yens: Stress and Antisocial Behavior

Generalized stress during COVID-19 increased impulsive and antisocial behavior, extending beyond typical crime to include misbehavior on airlines, car accidents, and poor decision-making, potentially exacerbated by increased gun carrying. The paper suggests this was a primary driver, with a smaller role for the George Floyd protests.

Yens: CBT Interventions for Crime Reduction

Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) interventions, shown in RCTs to reduce crime among at-risk individuals, may be particularly effective tools for reducing violence by improving decision-making under stress. This suggests a proactive, therapeutic approach to crime prevention.

Immigration Surge Dynamics

Between 2021 and 2024, the US experienced a significant surge in immigration, with 4.5 million entries primarily through new or expanded pathways. While the public perceived this as large, its economic impact is the focus of analysis. The monthly entry rate peaked at 300,000 in 2024 before declining. These inflows were largely driven by asylum seekers at the southern border and new programs for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, and Ukrainians, with Venezuela, Cuba, and Mexico being top origin countries.

The Role of Internal Migration

Internal migration significantly offsets the impact of surge migration, diffusing effects across larger geographic areas. The study found that internal migration offset 90% of the metro's surge migration over the 2021-2024 period. This adjustment mechanism helps mute the effects on high-surge metros and suggests that national effects are smaller than metro-level impacts.

Empirical Findings: Employment, GDP, Wages, and Rents

The study found that a 0.9 percentage point increase in the migrant share led to a 0.4 person increase in employment per worker, a 1.5% increase in GDP, and a 0.9% increase in native wages, while overall rents rose by 1.5%. Aggregate wages showed a statistically insignificant 1.5% decrease. These effects were observed over the 2021-2024 period, with impacts diminishing over time as the economy adjusted. Notably, native renters were estimated to be slightly better off after accounting for rent increases.

Discussant's Perspective on Labor Demand

Michael Clemens contextualizes the study by referencing the traditional Econ 101 model of downward-sloping labor demand, which suggests increased labor supply lowers wages. He notes that Alfred Marshall himself questioned this simplistic view, distinguishing between short-term and long-term effects, and adjusted vs. unadjusted outcomes. Clemens frames the recent immigration surge as a 'tectonic event' and a 'fascinating laboratory' to empirically test the slope of the aggregate labor demand curve, especially given the concentrated inflows and potential for negative impacts on US workers.

Rescaling Migration Data is Crucial

Wendy Edelberg emphasizes that the interpretation of the paper's findings hinges critically on how migration data is rescaled, particularly the difference between EOIR cases, CBP entrants, and the broader gross flow of immigrants, arguing that different denominators significantly alter the perceived economic impacts.

GDP Rises, Labor Income Stagnates or Falls

Edelberg's analysis suggests that while GDP increased by 1.5% due to the surge, labor income may have fallen slightly or remained flat, implying downward pressure on the labor share and raising questions about the distribution of economic gains from immigration.

Productivity Paradox: Pandemic vs. Financial Crisis

The surge in productivity during the pandemic was not due to a positive shock or compositional shifts, but rather a disproportionate decline in employment and hours relative to output, mirroring the Great Financial Crisis but occurring much faster. This initial surge was followed by rapid rehiring as firms realized they had cut too deep.

Self-Employment and Gig Workers: A Hidden Factor

The role of self-employment and gig workers, particularly in sectors like delivery services, surged during the pandemic and may be a significant, yet under-tracked, component of labor market changes. Household surveys like ACS and CPS may not adequately capture this dynamic, suggesting non-employer statistics are crucial for a fuller picture.

BPEA Fall 2026 Conference Day 1: Presented by The Brookings Institution

BIBrookings Institution4h 8m

BI

Can we slow down AI without losing to China?

Tech1 of 5

Elham Tabassi: AI Executives' Warnings Demand Serious Attention

The warnings from leading AI executives like Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Demis Hassabis about the rapid pace of AI development and the need to slow down should be taken seriously. These individuals are building the technology and have inside knowledge, suggesting that current advancements in AI capabilities, such as improved coding, coordination among agents, and exploitation of weaknesses, are creating unprecedented risks that are difficult to measure and manage.

Can we slow down AI without losing to China?

BIBrookings Institution30m

BI

Making costs count: A new framework for cost evidence generation

Education1 of 9

The Scarcity of Cost Data

Despite the critical need for cost evidence in education and ECCE, quality cost data is sparse, often incomparable, and inconsistent, hindering effective decision-making and program scaling. This scarcity is a significant barrier to achieving global education goals.

Elena Walls: The Guidance Note's Structure and Content

The guidance note provides harmonized key concepts, a cost measurement framework, and practical advice on data analysis, reporting, and use cases tailored for decision-makers, implementers, and researchers, citing existing resources for detailed insights.

Barbara Shera: The Critical Moment for Cost Data

The guidance document arrives at a critical juncture where governments, funders, researchers, and implementers increasingly recognize the value of cost data, yet have been hampered by siloed approaches, different terminologies, and methodologies.

Manisa Tim: Funders' Need for Cost Data

Fragmented cost data significantly constrains funders' ability to make informed decisions, advocate for scaling, and ensure program sustainability, as evidenced by missed opportunities to secure government funding due to a lack of clear cost information.

Lee: The Scarcity of Cost Data

The scarcity of cost data directly impacts research and policy advocacy, with a significant gap between published impact evaluations and those including cost analysis. For instance, only one in five published impact evaluations had any cost analysis, and there's a stark deficit of cost data points compared to program impact estimates.

Elena: Government's Costing Questions

When programs funded by USAID were intended for government scale-up, officials consistently asked about cost and implementation details. However, most implementers struggled to provide specific cost breakdowns for interventions, often treating programs as a 'Christmas tree' with many components, making it challenging to assign costs to specific measured effects.

Liz: Progress and Parallels in Cost Data

Significant progress in cost data utilization has been observed, with parallels drawn to the health sector's standardization efforts. Organizations like the International Rescue Committee (IRC) lead in internal cost analysis for efficiency, while initiatives like 'best buys' lists from FCDO and CGD raise awareness of comparative cost-effectiveness.

Manisa: Irresponsible Advocacy Without Data

It is irresponsible to promote or advocate for programs, especially in low- and middle-income countries, without a full understanding of both their impact and cost. This includes considering implementation details and ensuring that the chosen approach aligns with equity commitments, rather than simply opting for the cheapest option.

Lee: Equity in Cost Analysis

Addressing equity in cost analysis requires disaggregating data by specific populations, programs, and geographies. Recognizing that reaching remote or marginalized groups is more expensive due to factors like transportation costs is crucial. The question 'cost-effective for whom?' necessitates a deep understanding of the target population and intervention objectives to avoid leaving behind vulnerable communities.

Making costs count: A new framework for cost evidence generation

BIBrookings Institution1h 1m

BI

Navigating curriculum and culture wars: What happened to public school?

Education1 of 5

The Disconnect: Parental Perception vs. Reality

A significant paradox exists where over 90% of parents believe their children are performing at grade level, yet data indicates only about half actually are. This disconnect suggests a need for parents to look beyond report cards and state tests to understand their child's true academic standing, potentially by examining curriculum and teaching methods more closely. The podcast 'Sold a Story' is cited as an example of parents discovering their children's literacy struggles.

Navigating curriculum and culture wars: What happened to public school?

BIBrookings Institution39m

BI

Can communities mitigate their rising concerns about data centers?

Politics1 of 14

Subramanian: AI's Urgent Need for Guardrails

The rapid advancement of AI necessitates immediate, mandatory regulatory standards and guardrails, not voluntary measures. The industry itself is calling for a slowdown and for Congress to act, as evidenced by past concerns about monopolies and existential risks that are now amplified by AI's progress. Bipartisan legislation already exists that could provide a baseline for common-sense safety and containment strategies.

Land Utilization and Future Siting

Addressing the growing demand for data centers requires innovative land utilization strategies, such as developing energy parks or repurposing brownfields, to minimize community disruption. The current trend of massive data center growth, driven partly by AI, necessitates a shift from simply building more to smarter placement away from homes, schools, and sensitive areas. This approach could help balance infrastructure needs with community well-being and environmental considerations.

Elena Slashberg: Community Activism Origins

Elena Slashberg's activism began with a personal fight against a transmission line for an Amazon data center in Prince William County. This experience revealed how elected officials used NDAs and how ratepayer money funded infrastructure for private development, sparking the formation of the Coalition to Protect Prince William County to highlight excessive resource demands from data centers.

Ronnie Newman: Rural Communities and Data Centers

Ronnie Newman highlights that rural communities, often disinvested, are increasingly targeted for data center development. While initially eager for investment, these communities are now, with guidance, considering the full spectrum of impacts and pushing for community benefits agreements to ensure long-term win-win outcomes, a shift from earlier practices of offering broad tax abatements.

Aubrey: Environmental Justice and Data Centers

Aubrey connects data center development to environmental justice, noting that communities of color and historically disinvested areas are often targeted, repeating patterns seen with fracking. She argues that these communities face increased air and water pollution, quality of life concerns, and unaffordability, without seeing the promised economic benefits, leading to a strong backlash against deepening environmental injustice.

Maria Dixon: Energy Infrastructure Strain

Maria Dixon explains that energy utilities are struggling to keep up with the demand from data centers, impacting grid reliability and consumer costs. The rapid digital transformation has expedited needs, leading to increased generation costs and the necessity for grid modernization, with vertically integrated utilities in some regions better positioned to manage these challenges than those in non-integrated markets.

Elena: The Grid's Breaking Point

The current energy infrastructure, particularly in regions like Virginia, is ill-equipped to handle the massive energy demands of data centers. This strain is leading to the increased use of polluting backup generators, near grid collapses, and the potential for widespread blackouts. The projected energy needs far outstrip current sustainable generation capacity, necessitating significant fossil fuel reliance.

Marie: Legislating Community Participation

Directly legislating community participation in infrastructure projects is challenging, but establishing clear frameworks for engagement is vital. The NAACP's 'Frontline Framework,' based on EJ principles, provides a model for community-led decision-making, emphasizing health, environmental protection, accountability, and rejecting fossil fuel dependency.

Ronnie: Community Engagement Spectrum

Effective community engagement for data center development exists on a spectrum, ranging from manipulative tactics like demanding NDAs and red-lined zoning laws to proactive town halls where industry representatives directly answer community questions. The former approach is detrimental, while the latter fosters trust and allows for informed decision-making.

Elena: The Ripple Effect of Data Centers

Data center development creates significant ripple effects beyond the immediate community, impacting property rights, water resources, and air quality in distant areas. The construction of massive transmission lines and reliance on coal-fired power plants in other states to meet energy demands highlights the interconnectedness of these environmental harms.

Elena: The False Dichotomy of Progress

Elena argues that framing the choice as 'cure cancer or have data centers' is a false dichotomy. She emphasizes that communities are currently being harmed by data center development, accelerating climate change and straining resources, and that it's possible to pursue technological advancement without sacrificing environmental health and community well-being. We must 'chew gum and walk at the same time.'

Community Health Under Threat

The American Lung Association's reports indicate that communities often targeted for data center development already suffer from poor air quality, exacerbating health risks like cancer. This tangible, immediate harm to vulnerable populations is a critical factor often overlooked in the pursuit of technological infrastructure.

Congressman: The Sacrifice Question

The Congressman challenges the audience to consider what sacrifices they are willing to make for data center development, questioning if people would sacrifice their homes, property, clean air, or peace for this infrastructure. He asserts that while Virginia has more data centers than China, the cost to local environments and communities is too high, and current development is unsustainable.

Ronnie: Leadership Deficit in AI Policy

Ronnie identifies a significant leadership deficit in addressing AI policy and its societal impacts. He argues that while local engagement is important, comprehensive leadership is needed across all levels to discuss micro-level benefits and costs, such as curing diseases versus potential unemployment, and to set terms and design guardrails for development.

Can communities mitigate their rising concerns about data centers?

BIBrookings Institution1h 39m

BI

Coastal industry, recreation and community renewal on the Olympic Peninsula

Politics1 of 12

Tony Pipa: Commission's Mission for Rural Prosperity

The America's Rural Future Commission, a joint Brookings-AEI initiative, aims to review federal policy's impact on rural and small towns. By conducting site visits and listening to local communities, the commission seeks to understand how policy serves or hinders economic development and community aspirations, with findings and recommendations to be presented in Fall 2027.

Colleen McAleer: Focusing on High-Wage Jobs and Tribal Partnerships

The Clallam EDC is focused on creating higher-wage jobs and future opportunities, particularly in manufacturing, maritime, construction, and forest products, which offer the highest private sector wages. McAleer stresses the importance of moving beyond a perceived binary choice between economic and ecological benefits, advocating for value-added forest products and true partnerships with tribes, like the Lower Elwa Tribe, in development projects.

Housing Affordability Crisis

The cost of building a single housing unit, even a one-bedroom, has reached an astonishing $500,000 per door, making large-scale developments prohibitively expensive. This financial barrier, exacerbated by complex bonding requirements and federal tax-exempt structures, necessitates a shift towards exploring market-rate housing solutions rather than solely relying on subsidized or government-funded projects.

Attracting Future Industries: IT and Aerospace

Rural communities like Port Angeles aspire to attract future-oriented industries such as IT and aerospace, but face significant hurdles. The high cost of establishing operations, including demands for land, building construction, and operational expenses, often exceeds what local governments can provide due to restrictions on gifting public funds. While aerospace shows promise with companies like Honda Jet establishing a presence, breaking into sectors like IT requires innovative solutions and substantial investment that are currently out of reach.

Heidi Heitkamp: The Case for Low-Interest Government Loans

Current high interest rates make accessing home equity and small business loans prohibitive. The government, not needing to profit like private banks, could offer low-interest loans, particularly targeted to rural areas, to stimulate economic activity. This would be a more effective approach than relying solely on market-driven lending.

Mike Chapman: The North Dakota State Bank Model

North Dakota's state-run bank, established in the 1920s, serves as a successful model for providing opportunity and facilitating loans. It doesn't initiate loans but partners with local lenders, taking on risk through programs like interest buy-downs (e.g., to 2%), allowing credit to remain local and supporting small to medium-sized businesses.

Phyllis Bernard: The Unsustainable Rural Healthcare Crisis

Rural hospitals are financially unsustainable due to Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rates covering only about 80% of care costs. This forces hospitals to operate at a loss, leading to service cuts (like obstetrics) or even closure, which is devastating for communities that rely on them as major employers and essential service providers. The system is designed to fail rural hospitals.

Phyllis Bernard: Environmental Standards and Housing Costs

Strict zero-carbon emission standards, designed for urban environments, make building new housing prohibitively expensive in rural areas. These standards, based on outdated assumptions, prevent cost-effective local construction methods and add significant costs (e.g., $20,000 for EV charging), making homeownership unattainable for many rural residents.

Conservation Corps for Rural Resilience

A significant investment in a permanent, year-round conservation corps is needed to provide stable jobs, transfer valuable landscape management skills, and address environmental remediation needs in rural communities. This initiative would benefit both young people entering the workforce and experienced individuals, fostering a deeper connection to place and improving forest health.

Community Self-Investment and Local Priorities

Rural communities demonstrate a strong willingness to self-impose taxes and levies for essential services like schools, mental health, and infrastructure, indicating a deep commitment to their own development and quality of life. This proactive approach is vital for attracting and retaining residents, making communities vibrant beyond just job creation.

Quality of Life and Employee Recruitment

Smart businesses prioritize quality of life and employee recruitment, which are intrinsically linked to factors like housing, healthcare, and recreation. By improving these aspects, rural communities can attract and retain talent, thereby unlocking significant economic development opportunities.

Community Collaboration and Future Hope

The success of rural communities lies in their ability to collaborate, lean into their assets, and approach challenges with hope for the future, rather than nostalgia for the past. This collective spirit, demonstrated by unified efforts in securing awards and restarting local industries, is the driving force for sustained prosperity.

Coastal industry, recreation and community renewal on the Olympic Peninsula

BIBrookings Institution1h 42m

BI

How strong is the Chinese Communist Party’s hold on power?

Politics1 of 5

s1: The CCP's Enduring Grip on Power

Minxin Pei asserts that the Chinese Communist Party's hold on power remains exceptionally secure, rating it a 9 to 9.5 out of 10. This resilience stems from the absence of organized domestic opposition and the party's ability to manage internal divisions, despite external challenges like US-China competition. He benchmarks this security against historical periods like 1989 and the Mao era, concluding the party is objectively in decent shape. The perpetual anxiety within the party, while a characteristic, also contributes to its survival mechanisms. The conclusion is that objective security is high, even if the party itself feels perpetually insecure.

s1: Xi Jinping and the System's Swings

Pei posits that while Xi Jinping's leadership has accelerated the shift towards totalitarianism, the system itself is prone to 'wild swings.' He suggests that without Xi, another leader might have pursued similar policies due to systemic incentives. However, leaders like Xi create significant problems, making a course correction likely after his exit. The system's tendency to produce such leaders is balanced by its capacity to adjust once a leader like Xi is gone, potentially leading to a significant policy reversal depending on the successor. The conclusion is that while Xi embodies a systemic tendency, his tenure's excesses may necessitate a future swing back towards a different model.

s1: The Pervasive Surveillance State

Pei describes China's surveillance system as primarily organization-based, relying on a vast network of informants (estimated at least 10 million) and hierarchical Party-state structures, rather than solely AI. While technology has enhanced capabilities, the core system predates widespread AI adoption. The system is effective at monitoring known threats but struggles to prevent activities by individuals not on watchlists, as evidenced by the White Paper movement. He notes that technology, particularly AI, could significantly increase the system's reach and effectiveness in the future. The conclusion is that while technology is an enhancer, the foundation of China's surveillance state lies in its deeply embedded organizational network and human intelligence.

s1: Managing Internal Dissent: Xi vs. Jiang-Hu

Pei contrasts two models for managing internal dissent: the Jiang-Hu era's 'stakeholder' approach, which fostered crony capitalism but invested party members in the system, and Xi Jinping's 'rule of fear' model, characterized by perennial purges and loyalty enforcement. While the former risked societal backlash due to systemic rot, Xi's model effectively eliminates direct internal threats but risks stagnation and loss of incentives among officials. Both approaches, despite their differences, ultimately lead to similar outcomes of potential instability or paralysis. The conclusion is that Xi's fear-based system, while quelling immediate dissent, may create long-term stagnation and disaffection.

Ryan Hass: China's Vulnerabilities and Strategic Patience

Despite its assertive behavior, China's leaders remain acutely aware of their vulnerabilities, particularly in finance and advanced technology. This awareness drives a strategy of buying time and preserving periods of relative stability to strengthen their position. The current 'strategic opportunity' window, driven partly by U.S. distractions and global conflicts, is seen as valuable but not permanent, necessitating careful maximization.

How strong is the Chinese Communist Party’s hold on power?

BIBrookings Institution38m

BI

UNGA 2026: How Africa is setting agendas amidst strained multilateral consensus

Politics1 of 5

The Strain on Multilateralism

The international environment has shifted from a broadly cooperative post-Cold War era to one characterized by geopolitical contestation and strained consensus. This makes multilateral spaces, like the UN, more challenging to navigate, impacting development cooperation and the ability to address common global issues effectively.

UNGA 2026: How Africa is setting agendas amidst strained multilateral consensus

BIBrookings Institution42m

BI

The 9/11 terrorist attacks at 25: Assessing the legacy, addressing the future

Current Events1 of 21

The Cost and Ambiguity of Post-9/11 Wars

Governor Moore acknowledges the immense human and financial cost of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, admitting that the outcomes were not as predicted or promised, particularly the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan. He emphasizes that while the wars themselves may be viewed as unsuccessful, the service of those who fought was not in vain, highlighting the prevention of further attacks on US soil as a significant achievement.

Evolving Homeland Security Threats

Governor Moore outlines the current threat landscape, which includes remnants of terrorist groups, cyber attacks from state actors like China and Iran, and the increasing sophistication of AI. He stresses that the interconnected nature of these threats requires constant vigilance and a comprehensive understanding, as adversaries only need to succeed once.

The Case for Soft Power and Diplomacy

Governor Moore argues that while the US military is a powerful tool, it cannot and should not be expected to solve every problem. He advocates for a renewed emphasis on diplomacy, foreign aid, and soft power, contrasting this with China's strategic use of these tools. He suggests a redefinition of strength, moving from 'peace through strength' to 'strength through peace.'

Governor Moore: Maryland's Crime Reduction Success

Governor Wes Moore highlights significant reductions in violent crime and job growth in Maryland since his administration took office, attributing this success to pardoning past cannabis convictions and focusing on public safety and civil liberties. He notes a nearly 60% drop in violent crime and a homicide rate in Baltimore City not seen since before his birth.

Moore: Service as a Unifying Force

Governor Moore posits that 'service will save us' and proposes a 'service year option' for all high school graduates in Maryland, which has been implemented as the first state-wide program of its kind. This initiative aims to provide paid service opportunities in various sectors, helping young people find passion, build skills, and combat the workforce crisis, thereby fostering national unity amidst political divisiveness.

Schmidt: The Evolving Landscape of Terrorism

Eric Schmidt notes that 25 years after 9/11, foreign policy priorities have shifted to great power competition, yet terrorism remains a significant challenge. The threat has morphed into a more dispersed ecosystem with more terrorist organizations than on 9/11, with offshoots of groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS holding sway and posing complex challenges due to overlapping state interests and local grievances.

Hezbollah's Evolving Role and Iranian Influence

The Houthis are increasingly mirroring Hezbollah's past role as an Iranian proxy, building a web of non-state actors across regions like Iraq and Somalia. Meanwhile, Hezbollah itself is adapting, but its traditional strengths, including charismatic leadership and support networks, have been significantly degraded by Israeli actions, forcing a strategic shift.

The Narco-Terrorism Nexus in the Western Hemisphere

The US is increasingly applying counter-terrorism frameworks and military tactics to combat narco-trafficking networks in the Western Hemisphere, a shift from traditional law enforcement approaches. This reclassification, while acknowledging the extreme violence of cartels, raises concerns about the legal justification for US military strikes and the potential erosion of civil liberties.

Africa: The New Epicenter of Global Terrorism

Africa, particularly the Sahel and Horn of Africa, is a major hub for global terrorism, with groups like Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab evolving into international franchises. These groups exploit state fragility, adopt advanced technologies like drones, and control increasing territory, posing a significant threat that requires more than just military suppression.

Fonte: Shifting Sands of African Security

The security landscape in Africa, particularly the Sahel, is deteriorating due to the withdrawal of US and French support, the rise of ad hoc security arrangements, and the impact of coups. This has led to a capability gap, coordination issues, and a reliance on bilateral squabbles rather than unified regional responses, exacerbating the terrorism threat.

Will Jane: The Unregulated Frontier of Crypto and AI

Cryptocurrencies are woefully underregulated and used by nefarious actors for scams, terrorist activities, and evading sanctions. Simultaneously, AI is revolutionizing how terrorist and criminal groups rethink strategy, enabling lethal attacks with fewer resources, less labor, and potentially turning everyday items into weapons.

Geoff: The Perilous Echoes of the Iraq Invasion

The US invasion of Iraq was a disastrous counter-terrorism action, with implications that continue to reverberate and were incredibly damaging. The recognition within the counter-terrorism community at the time was that the situation would worsen, which it demonstrably did.

Geoff: The Rise of Far-Right Parties and Their Counter-Terrorism Philosophy

Far-right parties in Europe and Latin America often share a common philosophy centered on viewing migrants from Muslim countries as the core problem, advocating for their expulsion. Many of these parties also exhibit close ties to Russia and echo its talking points, while in Latin America, they promote a highly militarized approach to crime and migration.

Geoff: The Troubling Removal of Human Decision-Making from Violence

A deeply concerning frontier is the potential removal of human decision-making from acts of violence, where autonomous systems could make kill decisions, hunting targets for extended periods. This raises profound ethical questions about accountability and the future of warfare.

The Staggering Cost of Post-9/11 Wars

The wars initiated in the aftermath of 9/11, first in Afghanistan and then Iraq, have resulted in immense human and financial costs. The Cost of War Project estimates over 900,000 deaths directly from violence and millions more from resulting conditions, alongside over 7,000 US service member fatalities and tens of thousands wounded. The financial toll on the United States is estimated at around $8 trillion, though this figure may not fully capture all fiscal effects. The sheer scale of this expenditure and loss of life underscores a critical re-evaluation of these interventions. The long-term consequences continue to ripple through global stability and national budgets.

Treasury's Evolving Role in Economic Statecraft

Ben Harris explains that post-9/11, the Treasury Department underwent significant institutional changes, becoming a central player in economic statecraft. Key developments include the expansion of OFAC's remit to non-state actors, the creation of a modern financial compliance system requiring global institutions to screen and report, and Treasury's integration into the intelligence community. This shift empowered Treasury to wield economic tools, like sanctions, with unprecedented speed and scope, as demonstrated by the rapid implementation of the Russian oil price cap. The use of economic statecraft intensified dramatically, with sanctions increasing by approximately 1000% over two decades, all largely managed by Treasury.

Bill Golston: The Unprecedented Growth of Executive Power

Bill Golston identifies the most significant institutional change since 9/11 as the unprecedented growth of executive power. He explains this phenomenon is historically linked to times of conflict, where executive qualities are prioritized for security and victory. This trend was amplified by continuous warfare over the past 25 years. While Congress initially cooperated, passing measures like the AUMF and creating the Department of Homeland Security, the executive branch has accumulated over 130 grants of emergency power without sunset clauses. Furthermore, the influence of legal theories emphasizing the unitary executive, suggesting presidential war-making authority doesn't require congressional authorization, has persisted and impacted recent conflicts.

Initial Global Sympathy and Brief US-Iran Cooperation

Following the 9/11 attacks, the United States experienced unprecedented global sympathy, which even extended to adversaries like Iran. This led to a brief period of direct diplomatic engagement and tacit cooperation between the US and Iran, particularly in facilitating early operations in Afghanistan. This cooperation, however, was short-lived and ended in 2003. The narrative concludes by noting that this moment of potential engagement was missed, especially concerning the nuclear issue, as the US refused to engage diplomatically with Iran on suspension of enrichment.

Shifting Alliances and Regional Hedging

Traditional US allies in the Middle East, with the possible exception of Israel, are diversifying their relationships, not as a rejection of the US security umbrella, but as a strategic hedge. This diversification includes building economic ties with China and forming new agreements with countries like Pakistan and Turkey. Furthermore, these allies recognize the need to coexist with Iran and are seeking to build a different kind of relationship with it, aiming to avoid a destabilized, impoverished state that might seek to disrupt regional economic transformations. The conclusion is that these allies are actively building alternative structures to ensure they have options.

Historical Parallels of Crisis Response

Societies often respond to dire perceived threats with significant shifts in military strategy and domestic policy, as seen in WWI and WWII. The Lusitania sinking and Pearl Harbor, respectively, triggered profound changes in American outlook and actions, including increased global military presence and, in the case of WWII, the internment of Japanese Americans. These historical episodes demonstrate a pattern of societal spasm reactions to external threats, which can lead to repression and a temporary suspension of basic freedoms. The conclusion is that these historical precedents show a recurring tendency for societies to overreact in times of crisis.

US Basing Strategy Under Fire

The traditional US military strategy, reliant on an extensive global network of bases, is facing significant challenges. The war in Iran highlighted a lack of initial allied support, causing breaks in military planning. Furthermore, Iranian targeting of bases in the Gulf and Jordan forces regional countries to re-evaluate the benefits of hosting US forces, though viable alternatives like Chinese or Russian presence are not desired. Without these bases, the US military's ability to 'find, fix, and finish' targets globally is compromised.

The 9/11 terrorist attacks at 25: Assessing the legacy, addressing the future

BIBrookings Institution3h 1m

BI

Generation AI starts early symposium

Education1 of 21

Sua Shaw: AI's Pervasive Reach in Early Childhood

Artificial intelligence is no longer a future concept but a present reality deeply embedded in the daily lives of young children, influencing their development through toys, apps, and tools used by parents and educators. These tools interact either directly with children or with the adults in their lives, each with distinct developmental implications.

Matthew Melmid: The Unique Needs of Young Children

Young children, especially babies and toddlers, are not simply miniature adults. Their early years are a period of extraordinary development where they learn communication, emotional regulation, and exploration through relationships, play, and self-directed discovery. Technology designed for adults or older children cannot be assumed to be appropriate for this age group; development must start with the child's needs.

Kathy Hirsh-Pasek: Categorizing AI's Role

It's crucial to move beyond treating AI as a monolithic entity. Instead, we must categorize its applications impacting young children into three types: social companions, learning products for children, and products *about* children (data collators). This nuanced approach is necessary to evaluate the quality and developmental appropriateness of AI tools, distinguishing between beneficial and potentially harmful applications.

Dana Suskind: Human Connection as the Foundation

The core capacities that define humanity—empathy, curiosity, critical thinking—are not innate but are built through human relationships from early childhood. Emerging technologies, particularly interactive AI, risk crowding out these essential connections, which are fundamental not only for individual development but also for the functioning of democracies and society. Therefore, AI development must prioritize and protect human connection.

The 'Social Gate' and AI's Intrusion

Dr. Dana Suskind explains that babies' brains have a 'social gate,' described by researcher Patricia Kuhl, which ensures learning only occurs through responsive, human interaction. This gate is crucial for shaping neural pathways and attachment patterns. However, AI, through social robots and responsive agents, can now simulate human interaction, potentially bypassing this ancient system and opening the gate to machines instead of humans, the long-term effects of which are still unknown.

The 'HOPE' Principle for AI in Childhood

Dr. Suskind introduces the 'HOPE' principle as a framework for navigating AI in child-rearing: Human Connection (irreplaceable biologic necessity), Owning Imperfections (embracing messy, real interactions), Protecting the Early Years (safeguarding foundational brain development), and Enhance Don't Replace (using AI as a tool to support, not substitute, human flourishing). This principle aims to guide decisions about what AI products are beneficial and which could erode human connection.

Human Skills vs. AI Dominance

Ironically, the very skills AI threatens to impede in early childhood—critical thinking, curiosity, deep connection, and relational abilities—are precisely the skills that will become most vital in an AI-dominated future. Dr. Suskind argues that preparing children for this future requires a 'distinctly low-tech childhood,' as these human-centric skills form the 'human reserve' necessary for navigating a world where machines outperform humans in computation and cognition.

Dana: The Dosage and Dimensions of AI Impact

Repeated, long-term interactions with AI companions can have significant developmental implications, primarily through displacement of human interaction and alteration of social behaviors and expectations. This displacement can occur directly, as time with AI crowds out other activities, and indirectly, by creating an illusion for parents that a child's social needs are being met.

Jenny: Clinical Observations on AI Use

Pediatricians are increasingly asking patients about AI use. While some teens with autism find AI valuable for discussing complex topics, concerns remain about AI displacing other interactions. Parents, especially those with limited resources or children with special needs, are using AI for advice, but this can bypass crucial community support and human empathy.

Kathy: The '3Ds' of AI Risk Framework

AI introduces risks categorized as Disruption (e.g., parents on phones snubbing children), Displacement (AI replacing human interaction or parental oversight), and Derailment (potential misinterpretation of AI as human, impacting social-emotional development). These risks necessitate careful testing before market release.

Ying's Design Principles for AI in Early Learning

AI applications for young children should adhere to two core design principles: first, give AI a clearly defined and narrow job to maintain control over content and interaction flow, and second, design AI to actively bring people into the interaction, enhancing human connections. An example is an interactive PBS Kids show where AI prompts children's thinking, showing modest learning improvements and positive parental reception.

Kathy's Science-Informed Framework for AI

The rapid evolution of AI technology outpaces scientific understanding and regulatory frameworks. To navigate this, the tech industry must consult scientists who possess 'science-informed opinion' based on decades of research. Key principles for AI in early childhood include: active not passive learning, engaged not distracted interaction, meaningful content with strong narratives, AI as a supplement not substitute for social interaction, and iterative, joyful learning experiences.

Jenny's Marketplace Strategy for Quality AI

To foster child-centered and developmentally aligned AI products, the marketplace conditions must allow slower, more expensive, high-quality products to compete. This involves regulatory action on data privacy (COPPA), consumer resistance to unproven AI toys, and gatekeepers (like app stores) clearly indicating safety and effectiveness. Parents should apply the precautionary principle and wait for evidence of benefit before purchasing AI products.

Michael's Personal Drive for Equity

Michael's commitment to educational equity stems from his upbringing and his mentor Joan Ganskuni's philosophy of reaching every child. His urgency is amplified by his grandchildren's early interaction with AI, raising concerns about widening opportunity gaps.

Allison's Early Online Community Experience

Allison's early positive experiences with online communities in 2001, despite prevailing fears about the internet, shaped her career focus. She advocates for designing technologies that encourage beneficial online opportunities for children, rather than solely focusing on risk prevention.

Andrea's Mission to Empower Parents

Andrea's work began with a mission to solve educational access issues in Guatemala, leading her to develop an AI-powered virtual assistant for parents. Her focus is on reminding parents of their power and fostering joyful connections, using AI to personalize support and bridge gaps.

The Imperative of Cautious AI Design

Given the high risks in child-facing AI products, developers must err on the side of caution, especially when research on outcomes is lacking. This means prohibiting potentially harmful features like AI companions or excessive violence, and actively preventing cues that could lead to over-reliance or emotional dependence.

Incentives and Scaling Ethical AI

Scaling AI companies ethically requires founders to be deeply intentional about their incentives, aligning them with children's human flourishing. This is a personal journey, but the ultimate goal is to provide families with rigorously tested products that genuinely help, not harm, necessitating a focus on research and potentially government support.

Adapting AI for Children's Mental Models

AI algorithms are often designed with adult mental models, failing to account for children's unique literacy and metacognitive skills. Research shows children search differently, prioritizing interactive content like YouTube or games. Therefore, AI design must bake in a child's developmental stage and cognitive abilities to be effective and safe.

AI for Isolated Children

Innovations in AI are providing crucial resources, advice, and support to isolated children, including those in rural areas or with special needs, who might otherwise lack access.

The 'Go Slow' Imperative

To ensure responsible AI development for young children, a 'go slow' approach is essential, incentivized by policies, regulations, and funding that supports deliberate, friction-filled development rather than rapid iteration.

BIBrookings Institution2h 54m

BI

Rethinking girls’ agency through collective learning

Education1 of 5

Defining Agency: Beyond Individualism

Traditional approaches to girls' agency often focus on individualistic understandings and skill-building, neglecting the systemic and structural barriers girls face. LAAGA emphasizes that agency is not something given but an inherent power that needs supportive environments to flourish. This perspective challenges the notion that simply providing life skills is sufficient for empowering girls.

Rethinking girls’ agency through collective learning

BIBrookings Institution33m

BI

Raising children in the MAHA era: Where have all the healthy kids gone?

Opinion1 of 6

The Shifting Landscape of Children's Health

While the narrative suggests today's children are the sickest generation, the reality is more complex. Obesity and metabolic diseases like Type 2 diabetes have significantly increased, but other metrics, such as lead exposure and teen pregnancy, have dramatically improved. This nuanced picture challenges blanket statements about generational health decline.

Raising children in the MAHA era: Where have all the healthy kids gone?

BIBrookings Institution35m

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