No Missiles, No Soldiers, One Winner: China’s Masterstroke | Prof. Jiang Xueqin
Managed Interdependence: The US-China Trap
The US-China relationship has entered a phase of 'managed interdependence,' not due to resolved disagreements, but because decoupling is more dangerous to the decoupler. China's strategic investment in processing capacity, like rare earths, creates a structural dependency that cannot be easily overcome by tariffs or export controls, making economic warfare mutually destructive.
The Shifting Global Order: G7 vs. BRICS
The transition from a G7-dominated world to a BRICS-shaped one is a present reality, accelerated by global conflicts. The G7's declining economic share (from 65% to 30%) and its response of exclusion rather than adaptation hastens its own irrelevance, while BRICS offers a platform for developing economies to coordinate interests.
South Africa's Strategic Imperative: Patience
Countries like South Africa, caught between old and new orders, should resist premature alignment. The strategic imperative is patient construction of indigenous economic strength, focusing on regional development like the African Continental Free Trade Area, and cultivating selective relationships with both India and China.
China Built While America Fought
The Iran war exemplifies China's strategic approach: patient construction of economic capacity and leverage, while the US focuses on military conflict. This fundamental difference in strategy means China is consolidating the infrastructure of the next global order, making the war a strategic gift to Beijing.
