DA ÚLTIMA VEZ QUE ISSO ACONTECEU, PESSOAS COMUNS FICARAM MILIONÁRIAS
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The 1996 Setup: High Rates, Low Participation
In 1996, Brazil was emerging from hyperinflation with the Plano Real. To stabilize the new currency, the government maintained extremely high interest rates (Selic over 25%) and a strong exchange rate, attracting foreign capital. This made fixed income highly attractive, causing retail investor participation in the stock market to plummet to just 9.9%, effectively making the stock market cheap and ignored by the average Brazilian.
The Current Cycle: Record Low Participation
Following the pandemic, global inflation surged, forcing the Central Bank to drastically increase interest rates again, reaching 13.75% and NTNBs offering over 7% above inflation. This has driven retail investor participation in the Brazilian stock market to an all-time low of 10.7% (as of the video's recording), even lower than in 1996. The narrator argues this extreme pessimism and low participation mirrors previous cycles that preceded massive market rallies.
