BPEA Fall 2026 Conference Day 1: Presented by The Brookings Institution

1. Diego: Oil Shocks No Longer Drive US Recessions

Timestamp: 00:05:57 to 00:10:41

The historical pattern of oil shocks preceding US recessions, observed from the 1970s to the early 2000s, has been broken in recent years. Events like the Libyan civil war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, despite causing significant oil price surges, did not lead to discernible impacts on the US economy, suggesting a fundamental shift.

Significance (High): This challenges a long-standing economic indicator for recessions, forcing a re-evaluation of how oil price fluctuations affect the modern US economy.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

Neutral sources: Christian Balmeister (Discussant)

2. The Shale Revolution's Impact on US Oil Exports

Timestamp: 00:08:38 to 00:12:30

The transformation of the US from a major petroleum importer to a net exporter, driven by the shale oil revolution after 2010, is a primary factor explaining the weakened impact of oil shocks. US crude oil production nearly tripled, while net imports fell, fundamentally altering the nation's position in the global oil market.

Significance (High): This structural shift in energy production and trade is the core reason why oil price volatility no longer transmits negative economic consequences to the US in the same way.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

Neutral sources: Christian Balmeister (Discussant)

3. Diego: Instrument Weakness Concerns

Timestamp: 00:31:13 to 00:31:59

Concerns are raised about the potential weakness of the instrumental variables used in the analysis, suggesting that standard first-stage F-tests may be insufficient and that further evidence for the instrument's validity is needed. A new bootstrap diagnostic method indicates the instrument might be weak, contrary to previous findings.

Significance (High): This directly challenges the reliability of the paper's core findings, as weak instruments can lead to biased and inconsistent estimates. It necessitates a re-evaluation of the model's robustness.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

Neutral sources: Ben Harris (Director of Economic Studies at Brookings)

4. Diego: Proxy TVP-S Volatility Model Issues

Timestamp: 00:32:03 to 00:32:54

The proxy time-varying parameter stochastic volatility model faces two technical challenges: an extremely low acceptance rate (below 1%) in its Metropolis-Hastings step for identifying rotations, suggesting poor mixing, and evidence of order non-invariance, where different orderings of parameters yield significantly different results.

Significance (High): These methodological issues cast doubt on the reliability and stability of the model's outputs, potentially affecting the accuracy of the estimated transmission mechanisms of oil shocks.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

5. Yans Livik: Macro Trends in Crime Since 2019

Timestamp: 01:32:59 to 01:37:42

The period since 2019 has seen enormous volatility in US homicide rates, with a significant surge from 2019-2021 (approx. 34% increase) followed by dramatic declines. This volatility is primarily driven by gun homicides and affects nearly all demographic and geographic groups, though disproportionately impacting men, Black Americans, and young people.

Significance (High): The unprecedented scale and speed of these crime rate changes demand a re-evaluation of existing explanations and highlight the disproportionate impact on vulnerable populations, underscoring the urgency of understanding the underlying causes.

Sources in support: Johannes Weland (Discussant)

6. Yans Livik: Challenging Economic Deterrence Models

Timestamp: 01:40:44 to 01:43:13

Conventional explanations for crime trends, such as unemployment spikes or criminal justice system collapses, do not adequately explain the observed changes in homicide rates. Micro-data shows little systematic relationship between unemployment and homicide, and property crime did not surge as expected if economic conditions were the primary driver.

Significance (High): This challenges the prevailing 'Becker model' of crime, suggesting that economic incentives and costs are not the primary drivers of homicide, forcing a search for alternative explanatory frameworks.

Sources in support: Johannes Weland (Discussant)

Neutral sources: Jason (Questioner), Jonathan Miguel (Questioner), Bob Gordon (Questioner)

7. Yans Livik: The Role of Expressive Violence

Timestamp: 01:43:50 to 01:46:17

Most homicides in America are 'expressive' – driven by anger and the desire to harm, rather than 'instrumental' violence for other goals. This expressive violence, often stemming from arguments, domestic assaults, or drunken brawls, surged during the pandemic and has driven the recent volatility in crime rates.

Significance (High): Reframing violence as primarily expressive, rather than instrumental, shifts the focus from deterrence to understanding and mitigating emotional responses and interpersonal conflicts, suggesting new avenues for intervention.

Sources in support: Johannes Weland (Discussant)

Neutral sources: John Maria (Questioner)

8. Yans Livik: Cognitive Bandwidth and Decision-Making

Timestamp: 01:46:17 to 01:47:10

The 'scarcity' theory suggests that mental distress and cognitive bandwidth taxes lead to more automatic, less rational decision-making. The pandemic likely imposed a significant cognitive bandwidth tax on individuals, exacerbating issues in high-stakes situations and contributing to increased violence. Interventions teaching people to be less 'system one' automatic have shown dramatic reductions in violent crime arrests.

Significance (High): This hypothesis offers a powerful, evidence-based explanation for the crime surge, suggesting that interventions targeting cognitive processes and emotional regulation, rather than solely focusing on economic factors, could be highly effective.

Sources in support: Johannes Weland (Discussant), Katherine Abraham (Questioner), Don Con (Questioner)

Neutral sources: John Maria (Questioner)

9. Yens: The Pandemic's 'Bandwidth Tax' on Decision-Making

Timestamp: 01:47:04 to 01:49:00

The pandemic imposed a 'bandwidth tax' on people's decision-making capacity, contributing to increases in expressive homicides and aggravated assaults. This cognitive load is also reflected in phenomena like the surge in disruptive passenger events on airplanes, indicating a widespread decline in behavioral control.

Significance (High): This framework offers a novel explanation for the pandemic's crime surge, linking diverse behaviors under a single cognitive stressor. It suggests that mental bandwidth depletion is a key driver of societal disruption.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

Neutral sources: Ben Harris (Director of Economic Studies at Brookings), John (Co-editor)

10. Yens: The Role of Increased Gun Carrying

Timestamp: 01:49:23 to 01:50:14

A significant increase in gun carrying, evidenced by a rise in gun confiscations during police stops in Chicago, is a candidate explanation for the surge in homicides in North America. This change in gun carrying behavior, though lacking national data, is observed in local areas where data is available.

Significance (High): This points to a critical, yet under-documented, factor in the rise of gun violence. It highlights the need for better data collection on firearm carrying to understand its impact on crime rates.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

Neutral sources: Ben Harris (Director of Economic Studies at Brookings), John (Co-editor)

11. Yens: Stress and Antisocial Behavior

Timestamp: 02:11:13 to 02:12:25

Generalized stress during COVID-19 increased impulsive and antisocial behavior, extending beyond typical crime to include misbehavior on airlines, car accidents, and poor decision-making, potentially exacerbated by increased gun carrying. The paper suggests this was a primary driver, with a smaller role for the George Floyd protests.

Significance (High): This hypothesis reframes crime causation, suggesting that psychological states induced by widespread stress can manifest in diverse negative behaviors, not just criminal acts. It opens avenues for interventions targeting decision-making under stress.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

Sources against: Ben Harris (Director of Economic Studies at Brookings), John (Co-editor), Christian Balmeister (Discussant)

Neutral sources: Jim Stock (Co-author), Luca (PhD student at Northwestern), Johannes Weland (Discussant)

12. Yens: CBT Interventions for Crime Reduction

Timestamp: 02:12:25 to 02:12:39

Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) interventions, shown in RCTs to reduce crime among at-risk individuals, may be particularly effective tools for reducing violence by improving decision-making under stress. This suggests a proactive, therapeutic approach to crime prevention.

Significance (High): This highlights the potential of psychological interventions as a policy tool, shifting focus from purely punitive measures to rehabilitative and preventative strategies that address the root causes of impulsive behavior.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

Neutral sources: Ben Harris (Director of Economic Studies at Brookings), John (Co-editor), Christian Balmeister (Discussant), Jim Stock (Co-author), Luca (PhD student at Northwestern), Johannes Weland (Discussant)

13. Immigration Surge Dynamics

Timestamp: 03:03:57 to 03:05:57

Between 2021 and 2024, the US experienced a significant surge in immigration, with 4.5 million entries primarily through new or expanded pathways. While the public perceived this as large, its economic impact is the focus of analysis. The monthly entry rate peaked at 300,000 in 2024 before declining. These inflows were largely driven by asylum seekers at the southern border and new programs for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, and Ukrainians, with Venezuela, Cuba, and Mexico being top origin countries.

Significance (High): Sets the stage for the economic analysis by quantifying the scale and nature of the recent immigration wave.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

14. The Role of Internal Migration

Timestamp: 03:08:22 to 03:09:02

Internal migration significantly offsets the impact of surge migration, diffusing effects across larger geographic areas. The study found that internal migration offset 90% of the metro's surge migration over the 2021-2024 period. This adjustment mechanism helps mute the effects on high-surge metros and suggests that national effects are smaller than metro-level impacts.

Significance (High): Highlights a critical adjustment mechanism that moderates the localized impacts of immigration, contributing to a more balanced national economic outcome.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

15. Empirical Findings: Employment, GDP, Wages, and Rents

Timestamp: 03:13:23 to 03:17:04

The study found that a 0.9 percentage point increase in the migrant share led to a 0.4 person increase in employment per worker, a 1.5% increase in GDP, and a 0.9% increase in native wages, while overall rents rose by 1.5%. Aggregate wages showed a statistically insignificant 1.5% decrease. These effects were observed over the 2021-2024 period, with impacts diminishing over time as the economy adjusted. Notably, native renters were estimated to be slightly better off after accounting for rent increases.

Significance (High): Presents the core empirical results, indicating that the immigration surge had a net positive or neutral economic impact on the US, particularly for natives.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

16. Discussant's Perspective on Labor Demand

Timestamp: 03:18:17 to 03:20:20

Michael Clemens contextualizes the study by referencing the traditional Econ 101 model of downward-sloping labor demand, which suggests increased labor supply lowers wages. He notes that Alfred Marshall himself questioned this simplistic view, distinguishing between short-term and long-term effects, and adjusted vs. unadjusted outcomes. Clemens frames the recent immigration surge as a 'tectonic event' and a 'fascinating laboratory' to empirically test the slope of the aggregate labor demand curve, especially given the concentrated inflows and potential for negative impacts on US workers.

Significance (High): Provides a critical academic perspective, situating the study within broader economic theory and emphasizing its significance as a real-world test case for long-standing economic models.

Sources in support: Ben Harris (Director of Economic Studies at Brookings)

17. Rescaling Migration Data is Crucial

Timestamp: 03:33:27 to 03:36:12

Wendy Edelberg emphasizes that the interpretation of the paper's findings hinges critically on how migration data is rescaled, particularly the difference between EOIR cases, CBP entrants, and the broader gross flow of immigrants, arguing that different denominators significantly alter the perceived economic impacts.

Significance (High): This highlights a major methodological challenge, suggesting that the magnitude of migration's economic effects is highly sensitive to the definition of the 'surge' immigrant population used in analysis.

Sources in support: John (Co-editor)

Neutral sources: Diego (Speaker)

18. GDP Rises, Labor Income Stagnates or Falls

Timestamp: 03:38:46 to 03:41:04

Edelberg's analysis suggests that while GDP increased by 1.5% due to the surge, labor income may have fallen slightly or remained flat, implying downward pressure on the labor share and raising questions about the distribution of economic gains from immigration.

Significance (High): This finding challenges the notion that immigration uniformly benefits all economic actors, suggesting potential shifts in income distribution and a need to scrutinize wage data.

Sources in support: John (Co-editor)

19. Productivity Paradox: Pandemic vs. Financial Crisis

Timestamp: 03:47:38 to 03:49:56

The surge in productivity during the pandemic was not due to a positive shock or compositional shifts, but rather a disproportionate decline in employment and hours relative to output, mirroring the Great Financial Crisis but occurring much faster. This initial surge was followed by rapid rehiring as firms realized they had cut too deep.

Significance (High): This reinterpretation of pandemic productivity shifts the focus from technological advancements to labor market dynamics, suggesting that the observed gains were largely an artifact of employment adjustments rather than fundamental efficiency improvements.

Sources in support: Diego (Speaker)

Neutral sources: Ben Harris (Director of Economic Studies at Brookings), John (Co-editor), Christian Balmeister (Discussant), Jim Stock (Co-author), Luca (PhD student at Northwestern), Johannes Weland (Discussant), Jason (Questioner), Jonathan Miguel (Questioner)

20. Self-Employment and Gig Workers: A Hidden Factor

Timestamp: 03:50:44 to 03:51:56

The role of self-employment and gig workers, particularly in sectors like delivery services, surged during the pandemic and may be a significant, yet under-tracked, component of labor market changes. Household surveys like ACS and CPS may not adequately capture this dynamic, suggesting non-employer statistics are crucial for a fuller picture.

Significance (High): This highlights a critical blind spot in traditional labor market analysis, suggesting that policy and economic understanding might be incomplete without accounting for the growing gig economy and its unique employment patterns.

Sources in support: Ben Harris (Director of Economic Studies at Brookings)

Neutral sources: Diego (Speaker), John (Co-editor), Christian Balmeister (Discussant), Jim Stock (Co-author), Luca (PhD student at Northwestern), Johannes Weland (Discussant), Jason (Questioner), Jonathan Miguel (Questioner)