Israel and the U.S. in a Changing Landscape: Is the Special Relationship Failing?

1. Yael Lempert: Redefining the US-Israel Bond

Timestamp: 00:04:57 to 00:09:08 - watch this moment on skim

Yael Lempert argues that the term 'special relationship' is inaccurate for the US-Israel dynamic, proposing 'exceptional relationship' instead. She highlights unconditional US assistance, military aid, and diplomatic cover as evidence of this exceptionalism, noting that Israel is the largest global recipient of US aid since WWII. This exceptional treatment, she suggests, sets Israel apart from other US allies.

Significance (High): This reframing challenges the conventional understanding of the alliance, suggesting a level of support for Israel that exceeds typical bilateral partnerships and raises questions about its sustainability and implications for US foreign policy.

Sources in support: Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan)

Neutral sources: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

2. Shibley Telhami: Domestic Politics as the Cornerstone

Timestamp: 00:10:04 to 00:13:00 - watch this moment on skim

Shibley Telhami posits that the US support for Israel has primarily been driven by domestic political organization and influence, particularly from pro-Israel lobbying groups, rather than shared values or public sentiment. He argues that this issue only recently rose to public priority, explaining why politicians historically aligned with lobbies without significant public mandate. Telhami contends that the 'values drive' explanation is a post-hoc justification, not the original impetus for recognition.

Significance (High): Telhami's analysis shifts the focus from geopolitical strategy to internal US political dynamics, suggesting that the alliance's longevity is more a product of organized advocacy than organic national interest or shared ideology.

Sources in support: Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland)

Neutral sources: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

3. Daniel Kurtzer: Israel as a Strategic 'Better Bet'

Timestamp: 00:14:18 to 00:17:13 - watch this moment on skim

Daniel Kurtzer explains the US support for Israel by framing it as a strategic 'better bet' for American interests in the Middle East, especially after 1967. He highlights Israel's military prowess and its role as a surrogate power under the Nixon Doctrine, which persisted despite numerous bilateral crises. Kurtzer suggests that maintaining this relationship allowed the US to simultaneously engage with 'moderate Arab states,' indicating a pragmatic, interest-based alliance rather than one rooted in shared values.

Significance (Medium): Kurtzer's perspective frames the alliance as a calculated strategic decision, emphasizing its utility to US foreign policy objectives in a volatile region, which has historically outweighed episodic tensions.

Sources in support: Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

Neutral sources: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan), Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland)

4. Dan Kurtzer: Israeli Policies Undermining Peace

Timestamp: 00:17:58 to 00:20:28 - watch this moment on skim

Daniel Kurtzer identifies Israeli policies since the mid-Clinton administration as detrimental to the peace process, though he also acknowledges Palestinian and Arab state responsibilities. He argues that the lack of leadership and practical progress, particularly since the Oslo Accords, has created a dysfunctional regional environment. Kurtzer believes that the core issue lies in the policies and leadership choices that have failed to advance peace, impacting the stability of regional relationships.

Significance (High): This point directly attributes the current stress in the US-Israel relationship to specific Israeli policies and a broader failure in peacemaking, suggesting that the alliance's foundation is being eroded by actions on the ground.

Sources in support: Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

Neutral sources: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan), Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland)

5. Yael Lempert: Palestinian Treatment and Shifting Narratives

Timestamp: 00:20:38 to 00:23:53 - watch this moment on skim

Yael Lempert agrees with Kurtzer, emphasizing that Israeli policies regarding Palestinian treatment in the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem, along with the departure from pursuing a two-state solution, have significant consequences. She notes a 'metamorphosis' in the David vs. Goliath narrative to Israel as Goliath, and a shift in Israeli politics towards maximalism. Lempert points to 2015 as a pivotal year, marking the start of bipartisan fracturing over Israel, exacerbated by the current government's blunt policies and lack of interest in a two-state solution.

Significance (High): Lempert highlights how Israeli actions and the changing perception of Israel's role have directly fueled criticism and eroded its positive image, impacting its relationship with the US and its international standing.

Sources in support: Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan)

Neutral sources: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

6. Shibley Telhami: Israeli Entitlement and Public Opinion Shift

Timestamp: 00:23:56 to 00:28:53 - watch this moment on skim

Shibley Telhami argues that Israel's control over Palestinian territories since 1967 and its sense of entitlement to the land, fueled by a biblically-based narrative, have made its positions incompatible with peace. He cites polls showing a significant portion of Israeli Jews favoring expulsion of Arabs and Jewish privilege, indicating a transformation in Israeli public opinion. Telhami notes that the issue has become a priority for Democrats, especially younger ones, who view US support as enabling atrocities, thus making the US-Israel relationship itself a point of contention.

Significance (High): Telhami connects Israeli domestic attitudes and policies directly to the growing criticism in the US, particularly among Democrats, suggesting that the alliance's foundation is being undermined by Israel's own internal transformations and the US role as an enabler.

Sources in support: Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland)

Neutral sources: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

7. Daniel Kurtzer: Shared Responsibility in the Conflict

Timestamp: 00:30:36 to 00:32:24 - watch this moment on skim

While acknowledging the current imbalanced situation, Daniel Kurtzer argues against absolving Palestinian and Arab states of their historical responsibilities in resolving the conflict, emphasizing that both sides possess agency and have made choices that contributed to the present state of affairs.

Significance (Medium): This perspective challenges a one-sided blame narrative, suggesting that a comprehensive resolution requires accountability and action from all parties involved, not just Israel.

Sources in support: Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan)

Neutral sources: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

8. Daniel Kurtzer: Normalizing the US-Israel Relationship

Timestamp: 00:37:21 to 00:40:55 - watch this moment on skim

Daniel Kurtzer proposes that the US-Israel relationship needs to mature into one between two independent countries, moving away from aid-based dependency towards a more normal, reciprocal partnership where both nations can impose consequences, suggesting the current aid structure is outdated.

Significance (High): This call for normalization could fundamentally alter the dynamics of the relationship, potentially leading to greater accountability and a more balanced approach to foreign policy.

Sources in support: Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan)

Neutral sources: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

9. Yael Lempert: Military Assistance as a Barometer

Timestamp: 00:40:55 to 00:43:44 - watch this moment on skim

Yael Lempert views military assistance to Israel as a key barometer of domestic politics and anticipates a new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that will be a significant question for future US administrations, highlighting the complex financial and strategic implications.

Significance (Medium): The future of US military aid will serve as a critical indicator of the evolving political landscape and the US's commitment to Israel's security.

Sources in support: Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland)

Neutral sources: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

10. Shibley Telhami: The True Crux of US Support

Timestamp: 00:43:44 to 00:45:44 - watch this moment on skim

Shibley Telhami argues that the core of US support for Israel lies not just in financial aid, but in crucial military technology, intelligence sharing, diplomatic protection, and institutionalized backing, which are harder to disentangle and are being further entrenched by proposed legislation.

Significance (High): This highlights that the US commitment is deeply embedded institutionally, making it challenging for any president to significantly alter the relationship, even amidst shifting public opinion.

Sources in support: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Neutral sources: Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan), Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

11. Daniel Kurtzer: Resetting the Relationship Amidst Regional Volatility

Timestamp: 00:47:22 to 00:49:44 - watch this moment on skim

Daniel Kurtzer suggests that while a return to the past 'Kansas' is unlikely, positive changes could stem from Israeli election results, a shift in US political composition, and a more functional Palestinian Authority, alongside a normalization of the US-Israel relationship.

Significance (High): This outlines a path toward a more stable and productive relationship, contingent on significant political and leadership changes on both sides and a redefinition of the US-Israel partnership.

Sources in support: Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan)

Neutral sources: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

12. Yael Lempert: The Current Relationship's Functionality

Timestamp: 00:49:44 to 00:52:45 - watch this moment on skim

Yael Lempert contends that despite political shifts, the US-Israel relationship remains functionally strong in areas like military cooperation and intelligence sharing, and that the perceived 'sea change' has not yet corroded the core operational aspects of the partnership.

Significance (Medium): This perspective tempers expectations of radical change, emphasizing the deep institutional ties that ensure continued operational cooperation, even amidst political friction.

Sources in support: Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland)

Neutral sources: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

13. Shibley Telhami: Enabling Israeli Policies

Timestamp: 00:54:21 to 00:55:52 - watch this moment on skim

Shibley Telhami argues that the US has enabled Israeli policies, particularly concerning the West Bank and Gaza, by not adequately addressing the lack of Palestinian leadership and by continuing support, which empowers a far-right agenda and undermines US interests globally.

Significance (High): This critique suggests that US policy has inadvertently contributed to the conflict's intractability and damaged America's standing, necessitating a fundamental re-evaluation of its role.

Sources in support: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Neutral sources: Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan), Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)

14. The Unraveling 'Special Relationship'

Timestamp: 00:55:54 to 00:56:28 - watch this moment on skim

The foundational elements of the US-Israel relationship, including shared values, common interests, and bipartisan domestic support, are under unprecedented strain. This shift is not merely episodic but suggests a potentially irreversible change in the alliance's dynamics. The current moment demands more than just diffusing tension; it requires a fundamental redefinition of the relationship to avoid negative consequences for both nations. The absence of visionary leaders with mutual respect for each other's interests exacerbates this difficult road ahead.

Significance (High): This point highlights a critical juncture for a key geopolitical alliance. The erosion of bipartisan support and shared values could lead to significant shifts in foreign policy, security cooperation, and regional stability. The call for visionary leadership underscores the urgency of addressing these complex challenges.

Sources in support: Aaron David Miller (Host, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Yael Lempert (Panelist, Former US Ambassador to Jordan), Shibley Telhami (Panelist, Professor at University of Maryland), Daniel Kurtzer (Panelist, Professor at Princeton University, Former US Ambassador to Israel)