Taiwan: Will China Make Its Move?

1. China Normalizes Gray-Zone Squeeze Around Taiwan

Timestamp: 00:02:07 to 00:04:57

Bonnie Glaser states that tension in the Taiwan Strait is markedly higher than five to ten years ago because China has normalized military, Coast Guard, and cyber operations around the island since Nancy Pelosi's August 2022 visit. Beijing uses gray-zone tactics below the threshold of kinetic conflict to erode the status quo and shrink warning time.

Significance (High): By keeping operations below the threshold that triggers a U.S. or Taiwanese military response, Beijing steadily alters operational reality and compresses defense warning times.

Sources in support: Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)

Neutral sources: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution)

2. Bonnie Glaser Clarifies the 2027 PLA Target

Timestamp: 00:04:57 to 00:10:44

Elizabeth Economy and Bonnie Glaser agree that Xi Jinping's 2027 instruction to the People's Liberation Army is a capability milestone rather than a deadline to invade Taiwan. Glaser argues Xi's strategy combines military pressure, cognitive warfare, political outreach to the KMT, and legal tools to achieve progress toward unification without fighting.

Significance (High): Separating military readiness targets from invasion intent shifts the primary policy challenge from deterring an imminent amphibious assault to countering psychological and political coercion.

Sources in support: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution), Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)

3. What Beijing Counts as Progress Toward Unification

Timestamp: 00:10:44 to 00:13:30

Prompted by Elizabeth Economy to define what interim progress would satisfy Xi Jinping, Bonnie Glaser explains that Beijing seeks a KMT president willing to unfreeze cross-strait agreements and open formal political negotiations on unification. Both analysts agree that a Taiwanese pledge to stop requesting U.S. weapons would effectively place Taiwan on the path to ceding its autonomy.

Significance (Medium): Highlights how Beijing could achieve strategic breakthroughs through Taipei's domestic political choices rather than a bilateral grand bargain with Washington.

Sources in support: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution), Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)

4. High Invasion Risks Deter Chinese Military Action

Timestamp: 00:13:30 to 00:18:26

Bonnie Glaser identifies three major factors deterring Xi Jinping from launching an invasion: lack of confidence in the PLA after purging over 100 senior officers since 2022, the risk of U.S. and Japanese intervention escalating to nuclear war, and severe economic disruption. Moreover, Chinese scholars still believe time is on Beijing's side to win over Taiwanese youth and opposition leaders.

Significance (High): Explains why internal military purges and the overriding priority of national economic rejuvenation restrain Beijing from gambling on a high-risk amphibious assault.

Sources in support: Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)

Neutral sources: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution)

5. Mainland Chinese Polling Shows Caution on War

Timestamp: 00:18:26 to 00:24:06

Citing a Carter Center and Emory University survey, Bonnie Glaser notes that 54% of mainland Chinese respondents favored a negotiated peace agreement and 38% opposed unifying Taiwan by force under any circumstances, though 47% disagreed. Both Glaser and Elizabeth Economy conclude that while many citizens prefer avoiding war, public opinion is unlikely to constrain Beijing's leadership unless social stability is threatened.

Significance (Medium): Nuances the assumption of monolithic Chinese nationalism by showing public preference for peaceful resolution, while noting its limited check on authoritarian decision-making.

Sources in support: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution), Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)

6. Taiwan Expands Defense Reforms and Civil Resilience

Timestamp: 00:24:06 to 00:29:56

Following Elizabeth Economy's observation that Taiwan has expanded mandatory military service from four months to one year and raised defense spending, Bonnie Glaser evaluates Taiwan's defense reforms and civil resilience efforts. Glaser highlights how Taiwan discovered it was importing all of its blood bags from China and shifted to domestic production, though she notes military cultural inertia and partisan legislative divides remain challenges.

Significance (High): Demonstrates that Taiwan is moving beyond beachhead defense toward whole-of-society blockade survival, though legislative friction and command culture could slow progress.

Sources in support: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution), Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)

7. Why TSMC Cannot Easily Run Under Chinese Control

Timestamp: 00:29:56 to 00:34:06

Elizabeth Economy notes that Taiwan supplies over 90% of U.S. advanced semiconductors and asks what would happen to TSMC in a conflict. Bonnie Glaser argues that seizing TSMC is not Beijing's primary driver for unification and that China could not easily operate TSMC long-term because foreign suppliers like ASML would likely halt critical inputs. Economy adds that any U.S.-China deal trading Taiwan for guaranteed chip supplies would be foolish.

Significance (Medium): Debunks the notion that China would invade Taiwan solely to capture TSMC, as war and export cutoffs would sever the international inputs required to run the fabs.

Sources in support: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution), Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)

8. Glaser Recounts Backlash Over UN Resolution 2758

Timestamp: 00:34:06 to 00:39:32

Responding to Elizabeth Economy's question about facing political criticism from both sides of the Taiwan Strait, Bonnie Glaser explains that her work has drawn pushback from Taiwan's military over confidence-building measures and from Beijing over her reports on UN General Assembly Resolution 2758. She recounts that Chinese embassy officials visited her office to deliver an official demarche over the UN reports, and affirms she stands by her research.

Significance (Low): Illustrates how policy research on Taiwan's international legal status and cross-strait reassurance draws diplomatic pressure from Beijing and partisan criticism in Taipei.

Sources in support: Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)

Neutral sources: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution)

9. Second Trump Administration Creates Regional Doubt

Timestamp: 00:39:32 to 00:47:54

Bonnie Glaser assesses that while the second Trump administration has maintained robust Indo-Pacific military exercises and approved an $11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan, it also froze a $14 billion sale and eroded allied confidence through tariffs and inconsistent rhetoric. Both Glaser and Elizabeth Economy observe that Asian allies like Japan have no security alternative to the United States, unlike European nations that have clashed openly with Washington.

Significance (High): Shows that even when military exercises continue, linking trade demands to security and questioning Taiwan's defensibility weakens allied coordination against China.

Sources in support: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution), Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)

10. Iran War Depletes U.S. Missiles Needed for Taiwan

Timestamp: 00:47:54 to 00:53:42

Bonnie Glaser notes that the war with Iran has directly consumed U.S. long-range strike weapons and air defense interceptors, citing CSIS analysis that replenishing Tomahawk, THAAD, and Patriot inventories will take at least three years. However, both Glaser and Elizabeth Economy conclude that Xi Jinping is not opportunistic enough to invade Taiwan simply to exploit a temporary dip in U.S. munitions or the 2028 Taiwanese elections.

Significance (High): Separates a genuine three-year U.S. munitions replenishment vulnerability from the likelihood of an opportunistic Chinese attack.

Sources in support: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution), Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)

11. Opaque Beijing Decision-Making and Alliance Advice

Timestamp: 00:53:42 to 00:56:44

In a rapid-fire segment with Elizabeth Economy, Bonnie Glaser recommends Steve Tsang and Olivia Cheung's book on Xi Jinping's global strategy and identifies CCP top-level decision-making and succession as the biggest unknowns about China. Asked what advice she would give Donald Trump, Glaser urges strengthening U.S. alliances, calling the weakening of alliances an own goal and a gift to Beijing.

Significance (Medium): Highlights how opacity around Xi Jinping's inner circle and succession complicates deterrence, making allied resource-pooling vital for Washington.

Sources in support: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution), Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)

12. Avoiding War Requires Deterrence and Reassurance

Timestamp: 00:56:44 to 00:59:26

Answering the central question of whether China's challenge will lead to a crisis, Bonnie Glaser argues that an armed conflict would require a perfect storm across Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, such as a pro-independence Taiwanese leader, a risk-acceptant Chinese leader, and U.S. abandonment.

Significance (High): Provides the overarching verdict of the conversation: war is not inevitable, and stability depends on dual-track deterrence and reassurance across all three capitals.

Sources in support: Elizabeth Economy (Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Hoover Institution), Bonnie Glaser (Managing Director, Indo-Pacific Program, German Marshall Fund)