Prices Could Keep Falling Through 2026 in These Housing Markets

1. Dave Meyer: National Housing Market Slowdown & Florida's Plunge

Timestamp: 00:02:44 to 00:06:46 - watch this moment on skim

The national housing market is experiencing a widespread slowdown, with growth rates decreasing even in previously hot markets like the Northeast and Midwest, and real prices declining due to inflation. Florida, in particular, is facing a significant downturn due to oversupply, high insurance costs, and special assessments, leading to a statewide 'crash watch' in some areas. Ultimately, this signals a return to more normal, albeit challenging, market conditions after years of abnormal growth.

Significance (High): This establishes the current macro-economic climate, setting the stage for regional analysis and highlighting areas of significant concern for investors. It underscores the shift from abnormal growth to a more challenging environment, demanding a recalibration of investment expectations.

Sources in support: Dave Meyer (Host, BiggerPockets Podcast & On the Market)

2. Affordability Fuels Market Resilience

Timestamp: 00:08:25 to 00:10:08 - watch this moment on skim

Affordability is the primary driver of current market performance, with relatively affordable markets in the Northeast and Midwest (e.g., Wisconsin, Connecticut) showing resilience and continued growth, even within generally expensive regions. These markets are attractive due to their relative value compared to major economic hubs like Boston and New York City. Ultimately, this suggests that local purchasing power, not just absolute price, dictates market health.

Significance (Medium): This insight reframes the investment landscape, shifting focus from absolute price to relative value, and provides a crucial lens for identifying stable opportunities amidst broader market corrections. It challenges conventional wisdom about expensive regions, highlighting hidden pockets of strength.

Sources in support: Dave Meyer (Host, BiggerPockets Podcast & On the Market)

3. Austin & Dallas: Buyer's Market Paradox

Timestamp: 00:11:08 to 00:15:25 - watch this moment on skim

Markets like Austin, Nashville, and Dallas, despite having strong long-term fundamentals, are currently experiencing significant buyer-seller imbalances, making them strong buyer's markets with likely price drops. This presents a paradoxical opportunity for risk-tolerant investors to acquire good deals at potentially 'oversold' prices, provided they adopt a long-term mindset and are willing to navigate short-term volatility. Ultimately, these markets could offer outsized gains for those who buy strategically during the correction.

Significance (High): This highlights a counter-intuitive investment strategy, suggesting that current weakness in fundamentally strong markets could be a precursor to outsized future gains for those willing to embrace calculated risk. It challenges the fear-driven narrative, encouraging a long-term, opportunistic approach.

Sources in support: Dave Meyer (Host, BiggerPockets Podcast & On the Market)

4. Zillow's 2026 Forecast: A Flatter Landscape

Timestamp: 00:15:50 to 00:18:20 - watch this moment on skim

Zillow's 2026 forecast predicts a flatter housing market overall, with most regions experiencing price changes between -2% and +2%. While the Northeast and Midwest are expected to continue leading, previously strong markets like the Carolinas and Tennessee are projected to rebound, while Louisiana and parts of Texas and California are expected to see the lowest performance. Ultimately, this suggests a period of stabilization and reduced volatility compared to recent years.

Significance (Medium): This provides a forward-looking perspective, tempering expectations for rapid appreciation and suggesting a period of stabilization, which is crucial for investors planning long-term strategies. It offers a data-backed glimpse into the near future, guiding regional allocation decisions.

Sources in support: Dave Meyer (Host, BiggerPockets Podcast & On the Market)

5. Rent Dynamics: Divergence and Cash Flow

Timestamp: 00:18:33 to 00:22:36 - watch this moment on skim

Rent growth patterns largely mirror price trends, with the Northeast and Midwest showing strong rent increases, while areas like Austin, Denver, Phoenix, and New Orleans are experiencing significant rent declines. However, some markets are seeing diverging trends where prices are flat or falling, but rents are still rising, improving cash flow prospects for investors. Ultimately, this divergence highlights that cash flow can improve even in non-appreciating markets, offering new avenues for profitability.

Significance (High): This analysis introduces a critical nuance for real estate investors, emphasizing that cash flow can improve even in non-appreciating markets, shifting the focus from capital gains to income generation. It provides a practical framework for evaluating investment opportunities based on rental income potential.

Sources in support: Dave Meyer (Host, BiggerPockets Podcast & On the Market)

6. Conservative Investing: Affordability & Supply

Timestamp: 00:23:27 to 00:25:09 - watch this moment on skim

For conservative investors, prioritizing markets with high affordability and limited supply risk is crucial to mitigate potential price declines. Overbuilt and unaffordable markets, like Florida and parts of Texas, are experiencing corrections due to these combined issues. Ultimately, focusing on these fundamental factors provides a more secure path for investors wary of market volatility.

Significance (Medium): This offers a clear, risk-averse framework for investors navigating uncertain market conditions, emphasizing fundamental factors that provide a buffer against downturns. It empowers cautious decision-making by highlighting key indicators for stability.

Sources in support: Dave Meyer (Host, BiggerPockets Podcast & On the Market)

BiggerPockets & Fundrise Promotion (Medium severity)

Type: Commercial

Dave Meyer, as the host of the BiggerPockets podcast, actively promotes BiggerPockets events, products (like his book), and explicitly advertises Fundrise, a real estate investing platform, during the episode. This creates a direct commercial tie between the content and the entities he represents or endorses.

Significance: This raises questions about whether the market analysis, while data-driven, might subtly align with the interests of these platforms, potentially influencing the framing of opportunities or risks to encourage engagement with their services. The audience is left to wonder if the advice is purely objective or if it serves a dual purpose, driving traffic and investment to affiliated ventures.